Grain is more expensive than image: Russia is traded with Ukraine for ammonia and aluminum - economists
Moscow withdrew from the Grain Agreement-the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation declared the termination of the agreement from July 18, withdrawal of security guarantees for navigation and curtailment of marine gumcoridor in the Northwestern Black Sea. Turkish President Recep Erdogan said the Black Sea initiative has made history as an important diplomatic success.
More than 33 million tons of products were shipped by the grain corridor and many countries were saved from the food crisis, he said. "I think Russian President Vladimir Putin wants this humanitarian bridge to continue. When we meet in Turkey in August, we will discuss this issue," the Turkish leader promised. Futures for wheat with delivery in September went up to $ 6. 89 per bushel (by 4.
24%) after Moscow's release on the Black Sea Initiative, testify to the trading data of the Chicago Commodity Exchange. The suspension of the Black Sea grain corridor can lead to a global rise in food prices, especially in the poorest countries. Ukraine and Russia are among the world's largest grain exporters and other foods, Reuters writes. The last ship left Ukraine as part of the Agreement on Sunday, July 16.
Due to the breakdown of the Treaty on the Black Sea corridor, most of the shipowners are now refrain from measures in Ukrainian ports, said the Chief Operations Director of the Danish Norden Norden Norden Group, Chief Operations. It is likely that Russia will publicly defend three requirements in exchange for the restoration of the "grain agreement" with Ukraine.
The main and most real is the joining of the Rosselgogbank to the SWIFT system, said the economist, executive director of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzin. "The second is the launch of Ukrchimtransamiak, the largest world operator of the ammonia pipeline from the Russian Federation and the third is the removal of restrictions on the export of Russian grain," he said.
According to Pendzin, Kiev will never run to the launch of the ammonia and the only possible option is to guarantee the Navy of Turkey passing humanitarian vessels of Ukraine with grain. The exit from the Grain Agreement fully offset the role of the Russian Federation as an agreement partner for the West and will serve as a reason to develop the following sanctions. In turn, there may be a ban on Russian aluminum, says Ukrainian political technologist Oleg Posternak in a conversation with focus.
Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom in March banned imports from Russia of all aluminum products, Europe is still considering this opportunity. And recently, in the port of the Polish city, Szczin found a huge composition with Russian aluminum produced in March 2023. "Aluminum, nuclear fuel and oil are budget -forming articles in Russia's income.
The following levels of sanctions will show how much the EU is ready to abandon goods from the Russian Federation," the political technologist added. It is too early to speak about the final exit of Russia from the Black Sea initiative, because after the August meeting Putin and Erdogan can change everything, says political scientist Igor Reityrovich. "Moscow will return to the agreement under minimum conditions.
The Russian Federation can blackmail Ukraine - to detain or heat vessels with grain, but they need this path to export products," he commented. The maximum that Russia may demand is the return of the "rosilghopbank" to the SWIFT payment system. The history of ammonia and aluminum to the agreement is unrealistic, the expert is convinced. Recall that on the day of the explosion on the Crimean bridge, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced the termination of the "grain agreement".