100 dead a day. As the Kremlin masks the amount of its losses
Traditionally, I emphasize: these are only those who know all the data (name, place of service, burial place). There are several hundred names that have some different readings. And many people who we know exactly that they are dead, but in Russia have not yet recognized it. That is not a complete base, but allows you to record trends. From the demonstration: in the 3. 5 months of 2023, almost the same amount of Russian losses were recorded as in 10 months of 2022 (10 364 and 10 477, respectively).
The average pace of public funeral of Russian soldiers from January 1, 2023 is kept at the level of 96. 9 torso per day. That is, from the fall (after mobilization) the losses are so high that Russia is forced to recognize 100 killed per day in one way or another. The real number is several times higher. This is a delayed effect because the funeral often goes with delay.
In winter, the intensity of the fighting was even higher, it is possible to predict the increase in recognized losses in the coming months. Leaders in the number of buried Russian soldiers are: a symptomatic sharp rise in the Samara region. A week ago, we recorded 546 destroyed occupiers there. However, on April 15, Mr. Prigogin opened under the samara the ceiling destroyed "Wagner". Next to it is a cemetery, which was examined by vigilant citizens.
As a result, the list of buried in the Samara region increased by 216 names that were not previously publicly appeared. And this is only one cemetery on which they began to hide in October 2022. It is difficult to evaluate how many such unspecified cemeteries in the endless Russia. Also, the number of single graves scattered in the settlements in the depth, even approximately.
A separate category - cemeteries in the places of compact residence of servicemen (military towns), information from which is very fragmentary. Well, and "missing". In the whole. According to the trends we see, watching the emergence of information about the funeral, I am ready to defend the following hypothesis: a conservative assessment of the losses of Russian troops killed (army, Rosgvardia, "Wagner", without "LDNR") - about 100 thousand people. This is the lower threshold.
Mobilization gradually aligns indicators in the regions (more population is more losses). But, as before, there are noticeable anomalies: the regions of dislocation of a large number of military units + place of recruiting centers of PEC. When the hands come, I will try to cut in the demography of the subjects of the federation. During the 3.
5 months of 2023, there was a doubling of public losses in a number of regions of the Central and Northwestern Federal districts, where with demography everything was awful and without war. In the harmful Novgorod region, losses increased 2. 7 times. In Leningrad (there was the lowest birth rate) - 2 times. Also, since the beginning of the year, the losses in the Tomsk region - the worst in the birth in Siberia have increased 2. 5 times. Etc.
To summarize, for half a year the Kremlin masks the bodies of mobilized and mercenaries. Because it was not possible to force Ukraine into the negotiations on surrender. Somewhere, these losses are already sensitive. They are not quite correct to compare with the copies, because there is not enough data on the structure. Kovid took more in absolute numbers, but in the war, men, young and middle -aged, die in the war. In addition, the number of Russians increases in the statistics of the dead.