East Course: As Sheikhs and Middle East can help Ukraine win war
Ukraine is looking for partners not only in the West, but also in the East, in particular, close. Among the countries that are already involved in different processes: Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar. And, probably, each of them, like Kuwait, Oman, United Arab Emirates (UAE), can continue to build humanitarian and economic ties.
It is much more complicated with political - they are due not only to the features of the East and the Global South, but also the Russian Federation, which builds its chains of influence. Despite the obstacles, orientation to the east at the level of Ukraine is noticeable. Not so long ago, Dmitry Kulebo was replaced by his first deputy Andrey Sibiga as a foreign minister.
During the Kulebu Ministry, which, before the appointment in 2019, worked in the Cabinet of Ministers at the Council of Europe, eventually removed from the European and Euro-Atlantic vector-this was concerned Foreign Ministry African direction. Obviously, this situation was not like. Unlike Sibiga. The one because of his different diplomatic experience - Sibiga from 2016 to 2021 was an ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey - can better focus on the countries of the global south.
In particular, Western editions, including Washington Post, mention Sibiga's work in Ankara. The publication notes that in the time of Sibiga, Ukraine received from Turkey drones "bayrats", and also signed a free trade agreement. "Probably, this experience is perceived as an advantage because of an important role that Turkey plays in the war," journalists say.
And especially, that the President's office has a concept: to establish a partnership with the global south as deeply as possible, in particular, to hold a second peace of peace in one of his countries. Negotiations, except India, are already underway with Saudi Arabia, Katar, Turkey. "Ukraine has recently shifted the vector in the direction of the Middle East. Vladimir Zelensky was invited to the summit Bin Farhan Al Saud.
The Middle East for Ukraine was still considered an important region, but when it comes to supplying weapons or grain. Political relations have always remained out of context. "First, there was a great underestimation from Ukraine. There were periods in history, especially under Victor Yanukovych, when talking about foreign policy savings, a complete rejection of subjectivity was observed. We were a country unable to form our vision of this region.
And the answer This was not always the interests of Ukraine with the interests of the Middle East. And perhaps the situation would be that not on February 24, 2022. At that time, Ukraine had to look for foreign policy allies, in particular in the Middle East.
But the dialogue can still be called fragmentary: the focus is mostly economic issues - the restoration of grain and flour supplies, and humanitarian - assistance with energy sources, the return of citizens that the Russian Federation has captured during a full -scale invasion. However, there are examples of deeper support. Sergiy Danilov as an example mentions Qatar, a country that supports Ukraine in this war.
Shortly after Putin announced a "special military operation" against Ukraine, Qatar, and Kuwait was positioned as two countries of the Cooperation Council of the Persian Gulf of Arab, which at least rhetorically supported Kyiv. These countries are the only Gulf monarchies that vote in favor of condemning human rights violations in Crimea and supporting Ukraine in reparations. All other four countries (Bahrain, UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia) are held.
And this position, Danilov says, corresponds to the current experience of the country, which has undergone different forms of pressure and aggression by larger neighbors. Kuwait suffered from the Iraqi invasion in 1990, and Qatar suffered a blockade under the guidance of Saudi Arabia in 2017. At the same time, Qatar is maintained from the support of Western sanctions on the Russian Federation. One of the reasons is the Qatar Investment Fund in the Russian Oil Giant Rosneft.
And despite the loss of Qatar does not bring his investment from the Russian economy. Like other Gulf countries, they are interested in causing excessive hostility with either the West or Russia, which is why it tries to balance between the Russian Federation and the Western countries. Experts say that Ukraine can count on a multi -level dialogue with the Middle East.
But the readiness for economic, and too political dialogue with Ukraine will be determined by their level of dependence on the Russian Federation and Western countries. Some of the countries have been successfully distanced from the conflict in Europe for two years, in order not to harm themselves, others see their role in increasing political weight, offering their mediator services, balancing between regional and global forces.
"When we talk about the political level of cooperation between Ukraine and the Middle East, everything is perceived there through gas events, as Ukraine behaves on this war. . Це було позитивно сприйнято на Близькому Сході. Ми навіть говорили, що головним слухачем цієї пропозиції були не ці дві країни, а Саудівська Аравія.
Ця країна не збиралась надсилати до того свого представника на Саміт миру. Але після заяви ситуація змінилась. Друга людина в The country is Fiesal Bin Farhan Al Saud. Recall that during a summit in Switzerland, Facesal Bin Farhan Al Saud stated that his country was using "good relations with both sides.
" The summit was also a representative of Qatar-Prime Minister Sheikh Muhammad Bin Abdulrahman Al Tani. He also spoke about the path of negotiations and the achievement of peace, which should be "long and fair. " "Qatar has his own account with Katar. The main gas competitor of the Russian Federation. In 2012, the country had a project of construction of a gasket from Qatar to Europe, which was supported by all countries, except for one - Syria at the request of Moscow. And Katar remembers it well.
Of course, there is a conflict with the Russian Federation, but there is a reservation, despite the economic relations. Therefore, experts point out that Ukraine cannot gain complete commitment to even one of the Middle East countries, but can use disputes in their foreign policy relations. For example, most countries do not agree with the Russians about the future of Syria and support the Syrian opposition in one way or another.
Some countries are interested in creating a geopolitical counterweight of the Russian Federation in the Middle East region. "There is also a Sudan factor that is said little," Ukraine recalls. , Sudan's head, at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, when many countries did not want to sell. Arabia, which was an ally of Burhan in Sudan. According to experts, Saudi Arabia is ready to enter the game.
"Only the head of the country thinks, if he is beaten, then for him and his country will be great consequences, so he wants to enter only when he will clearly understand that he will achieve the result. But in general, Saudi Arabia on the side of Ukraine," - said Sergei Danilov . In addition, according to Ivan Usa, Ukraine also considers the countries of the region as a possible participant in negotiations to resolve the situation in the Middle East.
"There are many comparisons and parallels," he notes. "And there is a feeling that the war in Ukraine and in the Middle East can take place in one package. Peace is needed by Ukraine and the Middle East Monarchies. The only thing that is a destructive factor in our War is the Russian Federation, and in the Middle East - Iran. Communications with the Russian Federation, especially strive to normalize relations with Ukraine.
" In other words, the countries of the world can be united in the confrontation by the countries of the conditional axis of evil - Russian Federation, Iran, North Korea, and look for contacts to make them closer. "From my experience, I will say that in two and a half years of full -scale invasion I personally gave 120 interviews by the leading UAE. Al Jazeera, which belongs to the ruling dynasty of Al Tani Katara, is also interested in events in Ukraine.
I cannot say that in these countries it is completely On the side of Ukraine, neutrality, so to speak, is stored, but some notes of sympathy I watch, " - says Ivan Us. And this is in contrast to other Arab media, which allow pro -Russian narratives on the air. Ukraine was also interested in a full -scale invasion.
Everyone remembers the tourist boom in the Carpathians, when even in Arabic appeared, and the interest in cooperation in aircraft - earlier Antonov SE signed an agreement on cooperation on the construction of aircraft with Saudi Arabia. Ukraine has the opportunity to develop economic relations with Arab countries in the field of oil, energy, tourism and the humanitarian sphere.
In particular, the countries of the Middle East evaluate the successful geographical location of Ukraine as the country of the Black Sea basin: Ukrainian ports can be a transit point for many goods that are imported or exported from the Middle East.
"Another interesting nuance: Gulf countries, first of all Saudi Arabia, understand that the weapon provided by Iran of Russia will provide its proxy, and therefore Ukraine will have experience in confronting it, which is interesting to the Middle East," - says Us. But back to Turkey. Against the backdrop of Russian aggression against Ukraine, Turkey has become an influential regional player who uses a conflict between Russia and the West for its benefit.
On the one hand, President Erdogan supplies drones to Ukraine, joins some restrictions, says that Crimea is the territory of Ukraine, and on the other, he continues to cooperate with the Kremlin, refuses to impose sanctions and does not abolish flights between countries. "Turkey is still in the game," says Danilov. "Of course, we cannot close our eyes to her anti -Western drift, but there is hope.