Without Tantalum there is no war: as Trump could stop the military industry of the Russian Federation
It is a tantalus - a rare mineral used in many high -tech industries for capacitors. The best Russian winged and ballistic missiles, drones and tanks are equipped with processors, navigation systems or radios with tantaline capacitors. But most of the tantalum comes from abroad-the main suppliers are the Democratic Republic of Congo, Brazil and China-and sanctions imposed by the United States and different European countries have reduced these deliveries.
"Although Russia has its own deposits of tantalum, they are much smaller," the Ukrainian analytical group of Frontelligence Insight reported earlier this year. In addition, "in Russia there are no advanced processing facilities for the production of high quality tantalum powder required for capacitors. " As a result, the sanctions "really work", - summed up in Fronetelligence.
But will the chaotic, authoritarian administration of President Donald Trump survive the sanctions? The fact that the Russian industry is difficult to produce enough new weapons to support the war with Ukraine is obviously on the 800-mile line of the front. Tantalum deficit is one of the factors in reducing weapons production in Russia. Earlier, Russian plants imported recycled African, Chinese and South American tantalus from one large enterprise in Kazakhstan.
But Kazakhstan joined the sanctions regime, which limited the supply of recycled mineral powder. The Russians tried to buy tantalus in China, but its quality was low. According to Frontelligence, the Russian industry requires 1700 pounds (771 kg) of high -grade tantalum per month. To fulfill the available contracts for the supply of new weapons in the coming months, Russian plants require more than 4. 5 tons of mineral, but current reserves are just over two tons.
According to Frontelligence, there is no "immediate purchase decisions" of the remaining two tons. To fill the gap, the Russian industry can buy more tantaline components of "double -purpose" - those intended for commercial goods, but are also suitable for weapons. Double -purpose components that are transferred from mediator to mediator and finally are supplied to Russia from countries that have not signed the sanctions regime, come slowly - and at a higher price than the Russians would like.
But they come. The overlap of this last source of Tantalum should be a priority for the enemies of Russia and friends of Ukraine. "Companies involved in the production or trade of tantaline powder or capacitors . . . must face the prospect of loss of access to the western markets if they are exposed in trade with Russia," Froneligence called on Fronetelligence.
However, it is equally likely that the sanctions will be weakened as the new Trump administration implements its extreme and sometimes strange program. One of Trump's first actions was to stop all foreign aid, including the support of Ukraine. In the following days, Trump spent a lot of energy, threatening Danish leaders in an incomprehensible attempt to annex Greenland as a US territory.
Without American support, there is almost no prospects for strengthening the sanctions regime that could finally stop the stream of Tantalum to Russia. Not doing anything - or worse, abolishing the existing sanctions - the US government, which was once the main enemy of the Russian armed industry, can save it from tantalal famine. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position. The author is responsible for published data in the "Thought" section.