Win the war but lose peace: what is horrible happen after victory
"Win war, lose peace" - this formula has been actively using more than a dozen Ukrainian political scientists and journalists for several months; I failed to establish authorship, although it seems chronologically for the first time the formula was made from the mouth of David Williams, who paraphrased the statement from the speech of Ursula von der Lien at the conference from Ukraine's restoration in Lugano, and it came from Truman's doctrine in 1947.
When predicting the future, the so -called inertial scenario always appears in the field of view - the most likely scenario that comes if the subjects do nothing to move to other, better, more desirable, less likely scenarios that require active intervention. I want us to realize the inertial scenario. I have no doubt about our victory in the war.
It is also not simple (Russia has been defeated, but Ukraine has not yet won, and now Russia is doing everything possible to make the defeat mutual, because it justifies its own defeat; But in the war, it is at least clear what to do, and not only at the tactical level (the Armed Forces beats the enemy, the whole people support and help), but also at the strategy level (see Sustainable Peace Manifesto after our victory "). So, we do what we need and bring our victory.
From this point we look further. What is the state of affairs immediately after the victory? 1. We won. The transition from war to peace is much more complicated than the transition from peace to war. The country has lost the hundredth thousand better people. The country lies in ruins, some cities are destroyed completely, in some regions a real humanitarian catastrophe. The budget is a huge hole, because the economy has declined.
Our best people, the military return home exhausted, in the first priority for them to restore health and arrangement. Similarly, much of the active minority of those who worked hard to win the rear. All society is affected by serious injury. 2. The reforms are not made - they are "not on time", but no one was especially going to do them.
Ukraine has not fulfilled its obligations, so it receives neither sufficient money for recovery from international partners and donors, nor membership in the European Union. The Ukrainian political top insists on money and membership ("first European integration, then reforms", "winners are not judged", "you are guilty of us, because we have saved you", etc. ), but this rhetoric does not convince international partners. First, they did not forget the numerous previous deceptions.
Secondly, they are afraid of the emergence of a new cohort of oligarchs, which will stand on the storage of their money, and then respond to their voters. Third, no one needs a large country in the EU, which is a problem rather than an opportunity. 3. The restoration of the country is put on a pause.
Completion of hostilities and martial law actualizes the issue of returning or non -return of those who have left: European governments will gently push out those who have not rooted and stimulate the rooting of those who can (because all the educated hardworking people are needed). Millions of families will be a choice: women with children return home to men or men join their families. The decision will be made according to the assessment of the situation at the time. 4.
There is no decent paid work in Ukraine, as private sector jobs require private investment, and the public sector is so overwhelmed. The conditions for creating their own businesses do not stand comparison with neighbors (much of businesses are already relocated to Central and Eastern Europe). Schools and hospitals, without which life is impossible, are restored in minimal volumes. As soon as the territories have been liberated and the destroyed cities need huge funds just to start life.
Inflation, held in 2022-2023 thanks to international assistance, begins to spin-in the absence of donor money for restoration, the state will be forced to include a printing machine to rebuild at least critical infrastructure. 5. The situation is worsening, but does not protest: in Ukraine usually protest against injustice, not against the deterioration of living conditions, and it is due to sudden events, not slow "cooking frog on low heat".
And there is no one to protest: an active minority is exhausted, and perhaps split with artificial strife. The media and social networks controlled by any criticism of the authorities as undermining national unity. By the way, Russian propaganda also has not gone anywhere, even if Russia is already beginning to collapse under the influence of military defeat. 6. Control of all law enforcement agencies (including anti -corruption), and the one group of people belongs to parliament and media.
Oligarchs, which usually in Ukrainian history supported political pluralism for their own interests (and thus played a positive role in some cases), as a result of the war, actually left the stage. Decentralization reform is rolled back, the local leaders are facing the choice: to swear to the central government or to be repressed, at least limited in capabilities and poured dirt, and no longer have resources for recovery. 7.
The political top receives full control over life in a ruined country and does not understand that for the sake of recovery, this control should be partially yielded. The dialogue between the Ukrainian authorities and international partners is reminiscent of a dialogue between autopilot and auto answer. At best, European integration is moving on the "kindergarten" scenario, although it would be correct to call it "Orban.
ua" - we become similar to the Great Hungary, where there is formally democracy, free market and the rule of law, and in fact control over politics, economy and economics and economics and economics and economics The media is concentrated in the hands of a single clan, which opposes its country in Europe and gives a little money to grateful paternalists exchange for unchanged support (the likelihood that such a country will be welcomed in the EU is small).
In the worst case, we have a Russian essentially a scenario "kill a dragon and become a dragon", which means Putin's posthumous victory. 8. Against this background, key reforms of the previous years are curtailed, and people who have embodied them are at risk of getting to prison.
Corruption vertical is closed above, anti -corruption bodies under control, supervisory boards are destroyed, public organizations either bought (not always for money, often for access to media and into power offices), or pushed into margins. Court positive bloggins explain to the people in simple language, why they need it. 9. The most politically dangerous group is popular military and volunteer leaders.
The most popular and most active of them "are removed from the board" criminal processes to exceed powers, violations of rules and decision -making that caused material losses to the state (I think, you perfectly understand how well the officers and generals exceeded the powers, and volunteers violated the rules). The depletion of society, a huge dissatisfied request for justice and awareness of the scale of our losses require revenge at least to someone.
Protests marginalized, statements about the higher justice over justice in the conditions of low legal culture are not heard. 10. Since international partners have given neither money nor membership in the European Union, the people are announced that the West has thrown us, drained and deceived us. This understandable and obvious thesis explains poverty and destruction, unemployment and rising prices. For the next 25 years, Ukrainians have been experiencing an acute image for such behavior.
We turn into a nation of insulted winners, unable to draw conclusions (they are made either defeated or successful winners). This is where China comes with very profitable loan offers . . . Western intellectuals are wisely pumping their heads, repeating the phrase "Ukraine will never waste your chance to waste all the chances. " So the generation passes. All that happens after that is another generation, another story.
The peculiarity of inertial scenarios (I recall, inertial is the most likely scenario that comes if the subjects do nothing) always is that they are formed by trends that are very well visible. These are the alternative scenarios are formed by the active actions of the subjects, unnoticed or new trends and "black swans" (jockers), and the inertia is always clearly visible.
The Gills of the Mill are moving slowly, and because of this sudden events are almost gone - everything that happened to us for decades has been provided by those who have watched the trends. Therefore, if you do not like written, you should first walk on the points and ask yourself which points you do not agree with the fact that you deny the trends described there. And then evaluate how much your objections affect the whole picture. And think about what you can do.
Usually the inertial scenario does not like anyone, it is also disgusting. For this purpose, it exists to motivate it to turn it away. After all, good (desirable) scenarios require persistent and coordinated efforts of an active minority - those social forces that are able to look into the future and act for its improvement. The active minority always determines the direction of development, and the passive majority - its speed.
But an active minority can be exhausted, sprayed, split, beheaded, humiliated, displaced from the public space. And then the inertial scenario of the future unfolds as it is formed by the powerful trends of today. It would be correct to complete the text with a call to work together and an essay of the action plan to move from the rails of the inertial scenario to the desired. But I will put a point here.