"Kherson's loss for Russians is painful - they have put a lot in propaganda" - the political scientist Molchanov
With the beginning of a new wave of aggression of the Russian Federation in the territory of Ukraine, he found himself in the occupied city, but later left. However, he carefully monitors what is happening in the occupied territories. About it and told the focus. Read the best materials of the section on Focus. Military Focus on Facebook The Armed Forces of Ukraine have significantly damaged the Automobile Antonovsky Bridge. Subsequently, the movement on it stopped.
How will the destruction of the bridge affect the situation in Kherson? - Now, it is obvious that the state of the bridge is such that it is non -traveling even for passenger transport. But its inner part, beams that are thrown between the supports seem to be goals. That is, the bridge needs major repairs with a complete replacement of the overlap. It is unlikely that it can be done quickly - an armature, which inside, broke, stretched and separated from concrete.
Instead, the Russians will try to use the road, and possibly railway bridges laid over the dam of Kakhovka hydroelectric power plants. But they have already suffered damage, and they will still be suffered by the emergency repair immediately. The bridges above the Novokakhov Dam are simpler in the structure and in repair.
In Kakhovka there is an enterprise - Olesya LLC - with the experience of such repair work larger than in the rest of the Kherson contractors, even those who are in the orbit of the balance (Vladimir Saldo - Kherson Gaulayter. - Ed. ). After the hits in Novokakhovsk, this enterprise has already carried out work. And even though the invaders stopped the movement of civil transport, but continue to be limited to its military equipment.
It is important to understand that, in fact, all supplies of food, household chemicals, medicines to Kherson have gone for the last five months precisely through the bridges from the left bank - on the right of Kherson already the front line. It was on the bridges that it was made that it was produced in occupation and in Russia. If the bridges are destroyed, the Kherson risk is at risk of being in a humanitarian disaster.
If the Russians hold on, whether the Armed Forces leave them alone, there is a threat of hunger. Kherson also has an Antonovsky Bridge. Can it be used to roll over goods? - Yes, for the Russians the main mode of transport is the railway. Because they have long distances. But Kherson is important for the car bridge. In addition, there are nuances about the Antonov railway bridge. On the right bank, it continues a staple of 3. 5 kilometers, which goes above the floodplains to the stopping platform.
It was built by the Germans in 1943. It is very difficult now to find a driver who would agree to lead the composition. That is why the idea to launch trains from Kherson to Crimea remained the idea. Even if the Russians send railway units, find those who agree, it will be a good goal for the Armed Forces. It is much easier to destroy this bridge. It is possible not to beat on the bridge itself, but on the trestle.
If there is an enclosure on the train - it will fly from a height of ten meters, because there is no fence on the trestle. By the way, I am very skeptical of the balance of the balance that there were two hit on the railway bridge. Because Himars has six starting guides, and ours still launched all six or twelve. To think that the Russians have knocked down four - it is not worth it.
Therefore, it seems to me that the balance with this statement is simply trying to distract from this bridge, to impress that it has also been damaged, and no one will use it - and they will try themselves. For this purpose there are also indirect signs - concentration of echelons with equipment at Brylivka station. That is, you say that all these months of occupation did the Russians use the railway bridge? - No train was recorded. Although they did not let anyone on the station.
Perhaps because they captured many tangible assets. Kherson became not a deadlock, but a blocked station. But they have the opportunity to use the railway bridge in Kakhovka. And they used. It is unknown whether they came to the right bank, whether there were two hangars in the area of the gateways, where they placed their air defense systems and kept ammunition brought from Melitopol.
The practical value of these hangars is that they were approached by a railway, which parallel to the automotive bridge went through a dam on the right bank. Another composition was on the Tavriysk annual port. The first hit on July 8 was there. The warehouse was undermined. And next to him was the command post of the 49th Army, on the basis of the recreation "Slavutich", which was also destroyed by detonation.
That is, after the blasting of the Antonov Bridge, the Russians may experience some difficulty in supply, but they are not catastrophic. They did not even bring food to their units on the front, although they have the practice of civilian catering contracts that serve military units, and such suppliers were noticed on the left bank. On the right bank, the Russian army is simply plundering the local population.
Therefore, in terms of food, the Russian army does not feel the absence of a bridge - as they did not bring food and will not bring it. As for the transportation of people, even without a pontoon bridge, boats and boats are enough to provide a group on the right bank (from 20 to 30 thousand soldiers). Even lightweight weapons can be transported. Where will the Russians be able to build a pontoon bridge? - Most likely, they will try to do it in the area of Korsunka - Lviv.
There is a prepared path to the left shore smooth - an improved soil road with dams through the straits. In addition, the Dnieper there is relatively narrow - 400 meters. It was near Korsnka in the Soviet times and in the independence of Ukraine that training was conducted on pontoon crossings. But such a crossing will be easily destroyed. Six Himars shots - minus six pontoons or a quarter of crossing! Another possible place for the pontoon crossing is near the Antonovsky Bridge.
But there is 700 meters wide. In addition to the crossing, there is still a way to do earth work - to fill the swamp with sand to make a congress to the main line. While they instead of building a crossing and despite enough reserved pontoons, they were limited to a hybrid pontoon-paper crossing near the bridge, using several laid pontoons with a towing accompaniment as a "ferry".
The capacity of such a crossing is scanty even for the purely military needs of the invaders, especially since, fearing strokes from the sky, the invaders kindly provide space at every flight and civilian cars. But the construction of pontoon crossings is not two hours? - That's right. And at any stage of construction-at the beginning, in the middle or finale it can be stopped by HIMARS. That is why I am skeptical of pontoon opportunities. Unlike the use of boats.
Here, the Russians, though not rich, but enough choice. First, in the bare pier there is a jacket "Nibulon" with cranes, next to the old state, still Ukrrichflot. It is unknown whether the Russians seized some swimmer, because among the port property there were. If so, it can be used in a bare pier because depths allow you to walk barges from there to Kherson. The crane was also in Tavriya, but was destroyed on July 8 with the entire river port.
But in addition to stationary or floating cranes, you can find other overload tools, such as cranes on a car track. It is possible to carry manually, of course, it is possible, but not everything - more significant missiles, for example, to "hurricanes" or tank engines should be loaded with cranes. It is good that they have no ferries. They can not transport them here - the Dnieper on both sides is closed for them. Our artillery will not give in her ochak, and it is impossible from the north.
Therefore, they have to use what was stolen. It is unpleasant that the Russians probably managed to capture two tankers - a barrier oil. They previously carried different types of petroleum products along the river oil depots along the reservoir and the Dnieper. Now it is part of separate gas stations. These barges were in a working order, they could be taken to Nikolaev, but representatives of the Kherson regional administration simply fled, and no one had to do it.
Now the Russians will be able to cross diesel for their tanks. The Ukrainian Army needs to look for overload. Therefore, when all the bridges are destroyed, it will be necessary to take under the supervision and fire control, first of all, in the bare pier and Oleshki. Will Kherson residents feel that the Antonov Bridge is closed? - They will have problems. It is not necessary to be nostradamus to easily predict that the Kherson is now considered by the Russians as hostages.
After the bridge is destroyed, the Russians will say: "Ukraine broke you. " Like, Ukraine put you on the border of hunger, "we would like to help you, but we cannot do anything. " The boats may be shot on the boats, distributing it at the Kherson Port. Of course, they will try to combine humanitarian cargoes with a weapon, forming a living shield. It is hoped that the Kherson have made their food stocks for a few weeks. When they run out, you will have to decide something.
We want to believe that Kherson will be released, but Kherson's loss will be painful for the Russians - they have put a lot in propaganda. They also said that Kherson was "exposed Russian land". But this approach does not work: the vast majority of Kherson, no matter how they treated the thesis that "we are brotherly, close peoples", or that "Russian is a good people, and a flesh - Putin", now the Russians hate.
But at the same time, Kherson in occupation and information isolation - only Russian TV channels work there. Despite the fact that most Kherson perceive themselves not as "Russian", but as Ukrainians, this perception remains, but they were propaganda. Yes, they still do not perceive or perceive the statements: "These Russian land, there were no nikarinities here", but some listen when they sees the show: "We are with a Ukrainian friend, and the drug addict who was flexed, which was stupid.
It wants to starve, leave without retirement. " And which of these two theses will win, it is difficult to say. The Russians are accustomed to feeding both "brotherly peoples" and "Nazis, Khokhli" - they are both perceived normally, because they are accustomed to exist in a state of cognitive dissonance. And the Kherson - they think.
What to do in these conditions to the Kherson? - It will be such a game on the nerves - who will go to whom: whether the Kherson will defeat their patience and panic will begin with the Russians, or vice versa. The Russians invented and exaggerated the economic weight of the Kherson region in propaganda, portrayed it in the eyes of the Russians as a breadbasket with dairy rivers and jacket banks, which feeds all Russia.
Although Kherson himself is in no way a ulcer, he consumes what is grown on the left bank. But Russia is still poorly perceived by Kherson's loss. And also the promise to let water into the Crimea after the capture of Kherson region is also important for the average Russian, who knows that Ukraine did not give water for eight years. What are the further steps of the Armed Forces? -Ukraine should destroy the Kakhovskaya and Nov-Crimean irrigation system with several Himars shots.
The fact is that the Russians were completely controlled by agricultural production. Or they do collaborators, or invaders who do not work, but simply harvest a harvest and export. The problem is that the rest of the manufacturers do not allow you to enter a market. If they tried to export vegetable products through Vasylivka to the free territory of Ukraine, then they were simply stopped and forced to pour everything into the ditch.
If they wanted to export to the Crimea, they were inhibited at the Customs at the Customs and forced to sell practically for nothing, for example, two hryvnias per kilogram. In the copanas there was a price for a vegetable group - 1 hryvnia per kilogram. In Kherson, vegetables and fruits were about 10 hryvnias per kilogram before the destruction of bridges. It is twice or three times cheaper than in Ukraine now. However, after the closing of the Antonov Bridge, the price began to increase.
Russian goods were still more expensive than in the Russian Federation. The main purpose of the destruction of bridges and further actions is not to isolate the Kherson, but to bring it out of balance by the Russian army, to force it to leave. The invaders can feel that they are isolated and can run. And to do this, the Armed Forces should act - they should not be limited to bridges and wait for the enemies to bend like dew in the sun. Because it can happen like in Kharkiv.
Because there were no orders from Kharkiv, which mostly consisted of Donetsk "militias". They just ran. Now there are personnel parts of the Russian Federation. And just as these Donetsk "militias", which, incidentally, in Kherson region, and which are used mainly in the second echelon, without trusting them. They can run, and they can run without any orders. This should also be a calculation.
The recently thrown fake order of Shoig, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, on the evacuation of the command staff of units of units and battalions. Obviously, this is our information and psychological operation to sow distrust among Russian soldiers to their leadership, to the command that wants to leave them at the bridgehead on the right bank. What happens in settlements near Kherson? - To the north of Kherson there are no problems - people do not get anything.
There is a humanitarian catastrophe. There is no electricity, water and gas supply, where it was before. Absolutely no trade and medical care. Due to the lack of electricity, there is practically no communication. In frontier settlements, people sit on the cellars, the invaders shoot on them and climb the cellars in search of food. For example, the high -pilgrims, David Brid, Oleksandrivka near Stanislav were very badly affected. These settlements are virtually destroyed.
That is, the problem of deepening the humanitarian catastrophe is not there because it is there. And the only way to solve is to liberate these territories. How many residents are left in Kherson? How can you leave the city? - from 150 to 180 thousand. You can go theoretically through the Novokakhovsk Dam. Or with water transport to a bare pier or oles. In particular, private boats. This is not a problem, since the Russians, although rigidly controling low water transport, but allow it to walk.
In particular, for the "drainage of Rybatsky activity" - poaching. Dnipro, all possible ducts and lakes are dragged with nets, and Kherson is filled with fish as never before. Fish cheaper. But the Kherson now has the opportunity to use the catar, and then go from the naked pier by bus. That is, departure - through the occupied territories? - Yes, only through the left bank. It is impossible to cross the front line from the right shore.
Sometimes there are some fantastic rumors that carry products from Ukraine, which SBU has increased bribes for this. It's impossible, I think so. I traveled these routes when there was no such density of troops. I was shot in my car, it was significantly damaged. Now, I think, everything is much worse there. And both Russians and ours can shoot. Moreover, there are all replaced there. What is the mobile communication in Kherson? - There is no mobile.
Sometimes there are some legendary places from which Life catches. But most of the Life is not. And the Internet? - The Internet is. The providers remain ours. After the optic cable was cut into the post-Pokrovsky, it was restored by our specialists. They left Nikolaev and did it under fire. And then the Russians cut the cable for the second time, closer to Kherson - there is no possibility there. After that, at first one provider, and the other switched to the Crimean router.
The Russians resumed the cable that went from Crimea to Kherson. They then took control of all traffic. Originally turned off Facebook and Instagram, as in Russia. Recently, they did it with YouTube and Google. And the Kherson, who have already pumped different VPN services, continue to use it. Although the quality of the communication is really bad, often disappears, hangs, speed is small. In addition, sometimes the Internet is switched off completely.
Officially - because of the quality of the Internet in Kherson did not want to enter Russian banks. But came? - Now there are two: "International Bank" from the unrecognized "South Ossetia" and the great Russian "Promsvyazbank". The first has dubious experience in customer service in the DNR and LNR fake, and unfortunately, the Georgian government does not interfere with its activities. In fact, this bank is just a sign that crosses the rubles from Russian banks and vice versa.
The second, despite the size, has been bankrupt from 2017, "rescued" and taken under full control by the Russian government, whose money "finances" all Russian projects in the industry of MIC. He has no experience in working with small business and individuals. And, unlike the "Ossetian", it is as much as possible. So far, there is a "decree" for all entrepreneurs-to open accounts with any of these banks, and to all citizens pay there for utilities.
Тобто, перераховувати кошти за світло, воду, газ на віджаті, а фактично — новостворені, "государственные предприятия". Зараз росіяни намагаються цей процес контролювати, збирати з людей кошти.
Ці кошти потім частково витрачатимуться на зарплату, мабуть, працівникам цих підприємств, частково розкрадатимуться, але в жодному разі вони не зможуть ними платити за енергоносії Україні. А саме Україна є джерелом постачання у Херсон газу та електроенергії.
З одного боку на окупованій території існують потужності, які дозволяють Херсонщині існувати окремо від решти України – Запорізька АЕС, Енергодарська ТЕС і Каховська ГЕС. Крім того, є багато сонячних і вітрових електростанцій на узбережжі.
З іншого – Херсон, отримує електроенергію з відгалуження від магістральної лінії електропередач 330 кВ, яка йде з Миколаєва на Нову Каховку. Тобто, Херсон залежить не від Каховської ГЕС, яка є стабілізуючою, або балансуючою.
Базовими потужностями є Запорізька АЕС і частково Енергодарська ТЕС. Але цікаво, що від них жодних ліній електропередач, які б не проходили через контрольовану Україною території до Херсона, не існує.
Таким чином вся енергетика Херсона, а також і вода, яка видобувається за рахунок електроенергії на насоси, і тепло, яке виробляється виключно з газу в Херсоні, повністю забезпечує Україна.
Тобто при потребі Україна може вимкнути постачання? — У України є кілька способів зробити Херсонщині боляче. Перший – ЗСУ може, як я вже говорив, влучити по насосних станціях каналів, аби зникла можливість зрошувати поля.
Бо все одно все, що вирощується на лівому березі, йде або окупантам, або колаборантам. Я ще забув сказати, що окупанти змушують аграріїв продавати по низькій ціні овочі, фрукти, заганяя продавців в абсолютні збитки.
Вони змушені хоч щось виручити, але це "щось" не дозволить їм повторити цикл з нового року – закупити насіння, засоби захисту, добрива тощо. Тобто, восени ці умовно проукраїнські або нейтральні, які себе не проявляють, виробники, залишаться ні з чим.
Окупанти віджали сільськогосподарську техніку, зараз намагаються привезти свою, аби можна було зібрати врожай і, можливо, засіяти наступного року. Але це буде таке колоніальне використання, навіть без місцевих виробників.
Постає питання: навіщо нам підтримувати таку економіку за рахунок нашої води? Думаю, таку економіку треба знищувати. І нічого не залишається тим людям, які втратять джерела існування, як виїхати. Бо це краще, ніж годувати окупантів своїм зерном, своїм хлібом, своєю водою.
Другий – відімкнути від газу та електроенергії. Якщо херсонці продовжують платити за українськими тарифами на українські рахунки, це одне.
Якщо окупанти перекриють таку можливість, або херсонці вирішать, що окупантські тарифи, справді, дешевші, хоча і в рублях, і платитимуть по окупантським тарифам, то треба подумати над тим, чи не відімкнути Херсон від газу і електроенергії.
Але до другого варіанту можна вдаватися лише за кілька днів до звільнення, якщо буде така необхідність.
Як швидко росіяни на Херсонщині запроваджують рублі? — Усіх підприємців, які вже взяли дозволи на господарську діяльність, і заплатили за це в гривнях певний кеш воєнному коменданту, змушують відкривати у банках рахунки у рублях, реєструватися в російській "налоговой інспєкції", яку відкрили у приміщенні, де була Херсонська міська податкова інспекція.
Думаю, що самі зрадники, колаборанти і окупанти не поспішатимуть реєструватися і платити в якийсь невідомий бюджет невідомо кому, на рахунки в невідомих банках. Особливо зараз, коли перспективи "россійського назавжди" Херсону стали сумнівними навіть для колаборантів.
Як росіяни позбавляються від гривні? — Встановили дискримінаційний курс рубля до гривні. Заборонили роботу будь-яких відділень українських банків і інкасацію. В безготівковій формі гривня заборонена.
Тобто, хто отримує українську зарплату чи українську пенсію в гривнях на картки, змушені шукати готівку, отримувати за певний відсоток – від 6 до 25%.
Українська готівка якщо її несуть у магазин, потрапляє до рук росіян, які частково через свою корупцію викидають її знову на конвертацію українцям. З другого боку, їм гривня вигідна, навіть попри свою неконвертованість, тому що вона непідсанкційна, не викликає підозр.
І якщо її, наприклад, покласти десь в грузинський чи турецький банк, які мають представництва в Росії, то в такий спосіб можна безконтрольно зробити в якійсь структурі валютні рахунки, з яких можна купляти якісь підсанкційні товари.
Бо російські операції в доларах повністю під моніторингом, російські операції в рублях просто заборонені.
Одне слово, Україна, утримуючі українців на окупованих територіях, стимулює російського товаровиробника, а ще фінансує канали "сірого" або "паралельного" імпорту і засоби для оплати послуг шпигунів та диверсантів.