Kursk Battle: Can the Armed Forces break into the territory of the Russian Federation be profitable Kremlin - analysts
The effect of Kursk surgery and what it can lead in The Eurasian Times can lead to in the future. Some analysts, such as the Deputy Director of Russia and Eurasia in Chatham House Orysia Lutsevich, consider Ukraine the success of Ukraine in the Kursk symbol of humiliation of Russia and President Vladimir Putin. She notes that no other foreign state in modern history has invaded the territory of the Russian Federation, which makes this step an important precedent.
This is evidenced by the fact that the forces of defense keep the Russian territory and strengthen their positions, capturing hundreds of Russian soldiers. Piotr Schledz from Warsaw University claims that surgery is of psychological importance, giving Ukrainians the necessary moral impulse after months of attacks by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. He believes that this creates the preconditions for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian territories.
"It is a moral uplift that was needed by Ukrainian citizens and troops after a few months of Russian offensive, during which hundreds of drones and missiles were hit by civilian objects and critically important infrastructure. It is crucial for Ukraine's ability to mobilize Ukraine An increasingly difficult task, " - says the analyst.
Experts Michael Coffman from the Carnegie and Rob River Fund from the Institute for Foreign Policy Research state that success near Kursk can influence American politicians, facilitating additional financial assistance to Ukraine and weakening Kiev pressure on Kiev in negotiations with Moscow. For his part, journalist Stavros Atlazoglo argues that Ukraine's territorial successes in the Kursk region should create serious pressure on Russia.
"The purpose of the invasion was to create such a threatening and humiliating situation for the Russian soldiers to force the Kremlin to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian territories," he said. However, there are opposite views. Some experts warn that Ukraine's successes in Kursk may be short -lived and do not have strategic benefits.
So Senior Researcher at the Institute of Peace and Diplomacy Andrew Lethem, notes that Ukraine may face the problem of lack of resources to maintain positions in Kursk. "From a military point of view, the invasion of Kursk did not bring significant benefits to Ukraine. It has turned away resources from strategically important positions in the East of the country," Letem said.
According to him, the success of Russian troops in the Donbass can lead to a cascade effect if an important logistics knot in Pokrovsk is captured, which will violate the lines of supply of the Ukrainian army on the Eastern Front. Experts also say that the current phase of conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation can develop into a "war on exhaustion".
Under these conditions, Russia, having greater resources in live power, weapons and equipment, has the advantage, despite Ukraine's success in separate operations such as Kursk. Many analysts believe that long -term victory in this war will depend on the parties of the parties to preserve resources and continue fighting for a long period. "Russia will most likely continue to exert offensive pressure along the front line, increasing forces for counterattack," Kafman and Lee said.
It is believed that the success of Ukraine in the Kursk region can have unexpected geopolitical consequences. For example, Mark N. Katz from the Wilson Center raises the question of whether this step will lead to changing the balance of forces in and around Russia itself. According to him, other players, except Ukraine, can consider Putin's tolerance to the occupation of the Kursk region as a window of opportunity.
For example, this may change the political vector of the republics in the North Caucasus, in Transnistria, or change the position of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Against the background of discussions about the importance of success of the defense forces near Kursk, it can be assumed that this operation affects not only a military strategy but also international policy.
Ukrainian successes can strengthen the support of the West, but Russia, with great resources, retains the opportunity for counterattacks and wage war on exhaustion. Earlier it was reported that the operation of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region has been going on for the second month and the Russians intend to do everything to knock out Ukrainian defenders from the region. According to the Major of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces Alexei Hetman, Deadline stands until October 1.