Putin is extremely needed by a "frozen conflict". Why the US should overcome the continuation of the war by Russia

Scandinavian countries intend to prepare the threat of Russian attack seriously, says analyst Pavel Bayev in the Jamestown Foundation column. This should come from this, without weakening its anti -Russian efforts. Russian propaganda, talking about the war against Ukraine, illogical, but consciously brings together three different narratives. First, President Vladimir Putin insists that the goals of his "special military operation" remained unchanged.

Ukraine needs to "neutralize", and a pro -Russian government will be established in Kiev. Secondly, Putin repeatedly confirms his willingness to participate in peace talks, accusing Kiev of sabotage and explaining that such conversations can only be made if Ukraine is capitulation. Third, this may be most ambiguously, the Kremlin sends signals about the possible "freezing" of hostilities, at the same time claiming that Russia will never give up its imperial "conquests.

" Against this background, recent reports that Moscow signals the West about its readiness for peace talks, sound fake. The first and second narratives are focused primarily on the domestic audience. Putin seeks to make contact with "patriots" who incite the war and with a silent majority, which is increasingly wanting to end the war.

The strength of this advantage is emphasized by the long queues of potential voters who want to support Boris Nadezhdin, the only candidate in the upcoming presidential election, who declares his slogan: "Net war!" The third plot is partially called to reassure China, which is increasingly dominant in bilateral relations with Moscow.

However, Russian ideas about the "frozen conflict" in Ukraine are primarily aimed at inciting differences among Western partners of Kiev, which are forced to increase their support to continue the long war. The Kremlin propaganda of love enhances every vote in the West, which expresses the need to blame this burden. Moscow hopes to split the transatlantic unity, using the signs of "fatigue from Ukraine" among compromising Western politicians and analysts.

The statements of the leaders of Northern Europe and the Baltic States, which emphasize the need to invest more in preparation for possible direct confrontation with Moscow, refute Russian reports of weakening of the West's determination. Sweden Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bolin was the first to publicly declare it, arguing that the Russian threat would not be held back by Sweden's joining NATO.

Norwegian Defense Minister General Eirik Christoffersen and Estonia Prime Minister Kai Callas supported the warning of the Bolin with accurate estimates of the Russian threat. For its part, Finland firmly supports the consolidated position of the northern countries and the Baltic.

Leading candidates for the Finland presidential elections, which are currently taking place, agree with the proposal to strengthen the common border with Russia and claim that border relations can only be restored if Moscow abandons its imperial ambitions. The essence of this collective thought is not that the war with Russia is inevitable.

Concerning the prospects of Northern Europe and the Baltic States, it is emphasized that any "freezing" of hostilities in Ukraine will give Moscow time to strengthen its advanced forces and restore its badly damaged military machine. The determination of Europe to eliminate all vulnerabilities demonstrated by the NATO-Stable Defender-24th. Moscow, which last year had to abolish the training "West-2023" cannot repeat such demonstration of strength.

Joint military exercises are conducted against the background of the approximation of the next debates of the European Union regarding the approval of another package of assistance to Ukraine. The final decision will be made at the special summit of the European Council on February 1, where the objection of the Hungarian government, apparently, will be overcome.

The positive result of Ukraine's European partners can induce the US Congress to withdraw from a deadlock about a complex $ 60 billion financing package for Ukraine. It can also give a new impetus to the direction of frozen Russian financial assets to restore Ukraine. These events will gradually change the dynamics of war.

If Kiev is now fighting with the lack of artillery shells, air defense systems, live power and long -range means, then in a few months the infusion of new assistance will allow Kiev to prepare adequate training and equipment for new Ukrainian battalions, recruited in accordance with Kyiv's expected plans for mobilization legislation. Such a change of events will add a convincing power to the peaceful plan of the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky.