Will hit the economy of the Russian Federation: what can be the consequences in the conflict of Moscow-Khalsinki
The reason was the flow of illegal migrants, which, according to the Finnish authorities, organized Moscow in response to the accession of Finland to the Alliance. Before closing the checkpoints, the Finland authorities sent to the border from the Russian Federation to control the situation and build fortifications. In the Kremlin, the actions of the western neighbors "cause regret". They noted that there is no dialogue between the countries.
After what happened, according to Russian media, some Russian citizens living in Finland held a rally in Helsinki. They are concerned that they will not be able to see relatives. Analysts of the Institute for War Study believe that Russia intends to use the tactics of hybrid war on the Finnish border, organizing the flow of migrants. In 2021, Moscow operated on the same principle at the border of Belarus and Poland, arranging provocations, then accusing the Alliance of aggression.
Against the backdrop of a full -scale war in Ukraine, which threatened security in Europe, Russia is actively a hybrid war against the Western countries. According to political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, an attempt to arrange a migration crisis in Finland in order to destabilize the situation within the country is one of the striking examples. "It is a technology of hybrid war.
The Russian Federation considers its relationship with the West, as well as with situational partners, which was Finland, in the format of the Cold War. The Kremlin is not ready for another hot war, but in the future there is such a risk. Western analysts warn that Moscow It will take six years in the case of freezing of war in Ukraine to prepare a new offensive. It is known that Russia is already preparing a split in Bosnia and trying to provoke a new conflict in the Balkans, "Fesenko Focus says.
Experts say that the history of migrants in Finland is reminiscent of the incident on the Polish-Belarusian border in 2021, when there was a conflict between the countries through the flow of illegal migrants through Belarus to the EU. The border service of Poland then stated that from the beginning of 2021 30,000 migrants tried to get to the country.
In the fall, against the background of the conflict, Warsaw introduced a state of emergency in the border lane with Belarus in the Podlasie and Lublin Voivodes. And the Polish Seimas approved a plan of building a wall on the Polish-Belarusian border worth 350 million euros. Finland launched the principle of domino. Her example can be followed by Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia - and also completely close their borders for the Russians.
In the current situation, the Kremlin is trying to draw analogy - in 2021 the provocations in Poland followed a full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine. The incident in Finland, according to Russian propagandists, should probably exacerbate the feeling of threat in the Western world. In addition, Moscow's confrontation from Helsinki fits into Putin's election campaign, built on the Cold War with the West.
The presidential election in the Russian Federation should take place in March 2024. Despite Russia's attempts to show that it is able to interfere with the internal processes of other countries, the effect of confrontation with the West is directly opposite. According to the political analyst Oleg Posternak, a presidential election will be held in Finland at the end of January next year.
In the conditions of stressed electoral struggle, it will be extremely important for candidates to guarantee safety at the border. In the future, Moscow's conflict with Helsinki may not decide what will hit the economy of the Russian Federation. "The closure of the border points is radical, because across the border is a turnover, a tourist flow. Finland has launched the principle of dominoes.
Her example can imitate Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia - and also completely close their borders for the Russians," the expert said. Russian propagandists in response to Finland's actions threatened NATO with war. According to experts, it will be difficult for the Kremlin to explain to its citizens the need for armed conflict with the Alliance. However, there are no serious intentions in Moscow to join open confrontation, since this is not enough resources.
"The Kremlin is not able to wage another full-scale war, although the direct clash of the Russian Federation with NATO countries would play in favor of Ukraine, because in this case it would be possible to destroy the aggressor country," says political expert Alexander Kochetkov. Focus interlocutors believe that world leaders, although they do not like to talk about the prospects of the Third World War, understand - if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, he will come to Europe.
And if Russia is weakened, it will not be able to start a new war. "If the Kremlin believes that the event has lost the war in Ukraine, compromised for itself, then Putin will encourage, and the risk of new aggression will be high," Fesenko said. So far, according to experts, the world is not on the threshold of the Third World War, since this option for resolving a global conflict is not the only one. "We are guided by the fact that any world system is prone to weighted decisions.
But we have entered a number of 20s when the" black swans "scenarios are little predicted things, become possible. There is a visibility that conflict is being stopped. But more and more From world politicians, analysts, experts, such statements can be heard, " - adds Posternak. We will remind, according to the Finnish head of state Sauli Niinisto, Moscow cannot accept that it now borders with another NATO member, so it suits provocations.