Russia will not protect Armenians. What ended the history of friendship of Moscow and Yerevan

Azerbaijan went to an open invasion of Karabakh, which, however, does not consider war. International expert, Elijah Kusa analyzes the reasons for what is happening and tries to predict the further development of events. As for Karabach. I recently published an article in which I briefly outlined the interests and positions of the parties. Everything develops as described there about Azerbaijan. Baku believes that either now or never, and went to a managed, local escalation.

Mintimum: To entail the best negotiating positions under a peace treaty, for example, the return of Karabakh without any guarantees of the rights of the local Armenian population + hope that the fighting will squeeze Armenian from the region. Maximum: In case of success, seize the whole territory and put everyone before the fact, both the West and Russia.

As I wrote, Turkey publicly supported Azerbaijan, although the day before I tried to play de -escalation when Erdogan called Pashinyan against the background of exacerbation. Russia responds as always, showing that they will not interfere with conflict yet, and they do not particularly want.

As I spoke many times, it is profitable for them to use power escalation for pressure on Yerevan and personally on Pashinyan, which in the last months "has lost" shores in the last months "from their point of view. The event is likely to condemn the escalation from Azerbaijan, but the key question: will they go on and will they go to coercion to de -escalation, for example, with the help of sanctions? This will be their dilemma. At the public level, they support Yerevan.