End of the world or support of the Armed Forces: What will lead to rising prices for gasoline, diesel, autogase

The expected increase in excise duties on fuel caused a real panic on social networks. But economist Sergei Kuyun asks not to wait for any catastrophe and radical rise in prices - and proposes to consider it simply a kind of assistance of the Armed Forces. Increase in excise duties: consider it Donati on the Armed Forces! In the media, a campaign began to intimidate the consequences of increasing excise duties to fuel.

Last night, a synchronous wave of gasoline rise in up to 75-80 UAH/l swept a synchronous wave of gasoline rise. I have one question: not up to 100 UAH per liter? Well, this is much better than 75-80. Indeed, the topic is important, so I want to answer the most common questions that ask me to "excise duty". So: not the fact that they will grow at all.

The first stage of excise duty, planned for July 1 (if the government bill approves the Council) in terms of increases the tax component in gasoline by 1. 5 UAH/l, diesel - 2 UAH/l, liquefied gas - 5. 5 UAH/l. But. The price of fuel consists of several components. The tax component is significant, but not the largest. The main thing is the purchase value, read, the world price.

For example, if the law started today, then the diesel would not have seen changes at all, because here the price falls because of a good external environment. I think there would be no particularly noticeable changes in gasoline. But the increase on the roads really will not be avoided, because it is difficult to "swallow" 5. 5 UAH/l. Therefore, everything will depend on the market situation at the time of introduction of new excise duties. If the market falls, gasoline and DP will pass unnoticed.

If it grows, we will feel. But, in March-April, fuel went up by 5 UAH/l without any excise diesel, in May the diesel had already dropped a couple of hryvnias. That is, everyday oscillations that many do not even notice. Another story with LPG, about it next. Justice is the request for her today. New excise duties are just about it. They assume that for each kilometer of the way, everyone will pay the same tax regardless of the type of fuel.

It will not be so that the one who is on gasoline will provide four bulletproof vests, and who on gas - one. Everyone should be equal, especially today. The liquefied gas used the excise duty for almost 15 years. The "fuel" offshore was formed, people began to switch to gas from gasoline, depriving the budget of a huge amount of taxes. Like any preferential program, this also had the end, that is what happens.

Consumers of liquefied gas should thank the state for many years of support and tens of billions of hryvnias, which have been saved over the years. This money allowed someone to increase business efficiency, someone just save family budgets. And now a surprise: despite the level of excise duty with gasoline, liquefied gas will continue to save savings to consumers! Today, the price for it is 47% of gasoline, and will be 55-57%. The end of the world is canceled.

We hear this "village" for 25 years, and in the meantime, the farmer has invisibly turned into a locomotive of our economy! Yes, it is difficult for all times, but talking about a catastrophe is, to put it mildly, exaggeration. This is no longer a farmer with Soviet tractors who died, as if not in themselves. The fuel component in the prices of agricultural products is scanty, so there should be no significant consequences for food prices and the rest. At least in the first stages of excise duty.

This, by the way, applies to the vast majority of consumer goods. The task of the government is to control pricing and an objective change in prices. Something I did not notice that something is strongly cheaper after the prices for diesel fell by 30% compared to the 2022 Crisis. If we talk about excise taxes, it is first and foremost about the illegal production of fuel. Now it is problematic. Many mini-NPPs are destroyed or stopped. Those enthusiasts that have been slowly legalized.

I also note that the smuggling of fuel in the country has not been observed for 10 years. Therefore, there will be no risks of growth of the "black" market. Another thing is the "gray" market, non -payment of VAT, income tax, salary taxes. But this is a chronic issue that exists today, in the fight against it there are some success. No one is delighted with raising taxes. Including fuel sellers, for which rise in prices threatens to reduce consumption and, accordingly, sales. It's a terrible dream.