"Noticeable changes in the approach": in ISW rated a new offensive operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (map)
The authors of the publication point out that earlier the Russians, as a rule, either concentrated large masses of troops in the area of individual settlements (such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka), or carried out numerous attacks in directions that were too far apart. According to analysts, the current Russian offensive differs in a number of aspects.
"The prospects of this offensive in the Kharkiv-Luhansk direction are far from clear, but its plan and initial implementation mark significant changes in Russia's approach to operational level," ISW said. Analysts have indicated that recently the Russian Federation has intensified actions at the turn of Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremin and focuses on four directions.
According to them, the invaders carry out offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, northwest of Svatov, southwest of Svatov and west of Kreminna. According to the authors of the article, the coordination of Russian offensive efforts in four directions on the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Rozhinna line can reflect a wider operational purpose and higher-level operational planning. ISW believes that the invaders pursue an operational goal to capture the eastern bank of the Oskil River in Kharkiv region.
"Russian troops seem to be attacked by mutual directions, which by Russian troops often failed to do in the past, which implies possible improvements in Russian operational planning at least in this area of the front," analysts said. ISW believes that the likely Russian offensive operation in the direction of the Oskil River is "more stable" than previous Russian offensive operations in Ukraine.
At the same time, analysts emphasized that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is unlikely to be able to move quickly enough, so it will be time to prepare positions and establish logistics around settlements on the eastern bank of the Oskil River. "The gradual offensive of Russia is likely to end with grueling frontal attacks on fortified Ukrainian positions in settlements along and near the Oskil River," - summed up at the Analytical Institute.
We will remind, on February 21 the officer of the 4th Brigade of Operational Purpose "Rubiz" Vladimir Rashchuk stated that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are coming in many directions and can reach the city of Dnipro, if the Armed Forces command does not make serious decisions. For his part, Major General GUR Vadim Skibitsky stated that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were not able to start a new offensive in Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv or Kyiv regions.