The hardest crisis for 30 years: why the coal industry of the Russian Federation was on the bottom

Even official statistics, coal production began to collapse in Russia. The industry has not felt such a crisis for 30 years - and the systemic analyst Yevgeny Eastrebin is in detail why all this is happening. "The hardest crisis for 30 years. " In Russia, coal production began to collapse. The Russian coal industry is one of the largest raw materials of the economy, covering more than 30 mononomists and hundreds of thousands of employees - slowly rushes to a difficult crisis.

Having lost the western markets, faced with a sharp fall in demand in "friendly" countries and multibillion dose, coal companies began to sharply reduce production. According to Rosstat, in July coal production in Russia fell by 6. 7% in annual terms, and its total volume-31. 5 million tons-became the lowest of the pandemic-2020. With regard to the peaks shown in December 2022, coal companies have lost about 12 million tons of monthly production, or 27%.

Coal production - the main product of coal, which accounts for 80%of production - collapsed by 8. 2%, and anthracite - the most valuable variety - almost a quarter (by 23. 7%). In August, according to Rosstat's operational statistics, the decline in coal production has accelerated to 10. 1% a year to a year. Western sanctions have become a key problem for the coal industry, Janis Klughe, a researcher at the German Institute for International Security.

Unlike oil and gas, which the European Union continues to buy, albeit in small volumes, coal has fallen under a total embargo, and Asia countries that bought Russian coal last year have sharply reduced demand. Supply to China in the first half of 2024 was seated by 8% and their growth was not expected, complained in September by the head of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation Sergey Tsyville. The fact that Beijing introduced duties on Russian coal, was explained by the minister.

At the same time, other suppliers - Indonesia and Australia - have not been hit, as they enter the free trade area with the PRC. India reduced coal imports from Russia by 55%, and Turkey - by 47%, according to CREA estimates. Absorbent coal exports from Russia in January-July seized 11. 4%, up to 112. 6 million tons. And since the coal exported about half of the production, the impact was sensitive to them, Kluga states.

The Russian coal industry has been in the most severe crisis in the last 30 years, says an independent energy expert in the field of energy Maxim Ivanov. In addition to sanctions, Chinese duties and forced discounts, the fall of global coal prices is affected: in the first half of the year, they asked for 34%, up to $ 132 per tonne under the conditions of FOB Newcastle (Australia)-in the largest carbon Habi Asian-Pacific region.

As a result: According to Rosstat, more than half of coal companies have become unprofitable, and the balanced financial result of the entire industry has become negative. The total loss of the coal industry in January-July amounted to 7. 1 billion rubles. At the same time, the losses of unprofitable companies increased 3. 4 times, and the profit of profitable decreased by 72%.

The coal faces the lock of payments, the inaccessibility of imported equipment through sanctions, and forced to offer discounts to clients who are squeezed by "toxic" companies from Russia, lists Klug. In addition, carry coal to Asia expensive: if one tanker holds oil for $ 50 million and its delivery to India costs $ 5 million, then the coal ship carries a cargo for only $ 15-20 million, and transport costs "eat up" up to a third The proceeds.