"Green Men" in Europe: Why Russia's invasion is possible in the next three weeks
To assert its high probability gives a set of the following factors: 1. From the moment of invasion of two dozen Russian drones into Poland on the night of September 9 to September 10, a month has passed. At this time, NATO member countries were not enough to make and practically implement crisis decisions to respond to such attacks at least at the national level in its countries. Just as the necessary protocols and regulations during such attacks were not approved at the NATO level.
Despite the unprecedented frequency of application of Article 4 of the Alliance Statute (twice in two weeks-at the request of Poland after the attack of drones on Estonia after three Russian Mig-31 violated Estonian airspace for more than ten minutes, while NATO was used in 1949.
From some positive shifts to develop effective means of response to Russian attacks with drones, the initiative of the land management of Bavaria in Germany, the Federal Government of Germany and the Belgian company Thales to destroy such drones. However, it will take some time to practically implement these initiatives.
Undoubtedly, the lack of readiness of Europe here and now to give a rigid response to the Russian attacks encourages the Russians to go further in the test (and demonstration of weakness) of European security. 2. Important point: when NATO's military countries evaluate the possible directions of the following Russian blows, they naturally emerge from military logic.
Here's an interesting thing: how many more "special military operations" should be conducted by the former Kadebist Putin in order to understand in NATO: the staff of special services plays the main violin in the Russian authorities and the rules of war against Europeans are not determined by the Russian military, especially a flock of special services, led by Putin? This pack has logic not military, it is the logic of special services.
In which the blow is not where the Russians have the best prepared positions, but where you can quickly "loosen" and as soon as possible to impress the enemy. The list of such vulnerability points contains obvious places - for example, a possible attack of "Zelny Chief" on one of the Baltic States or Poland from the territory of Belarus or Kaliningrad's Exectors of the Russian Federation, an attempt to take control of "Suvoalsky Corridor" from Belarus to this exclusive Rafa.
They account for more than 80% of the population. But there is also a huge number of other opportunities. Which will be able to identify and help neutralize the special services of the Western countries in advance. 3.
For the month that has passed from the invasion of Russian drones into Poland, Russia has confirmed the obvious thing before: Putin was leading a war against the collective event and, in particular, Europe with a constant increase in the quality and number of tools he uses in this war against the enemy. It is a process of escalation (from which they try for years to escape in the West), Russia operates on the principle of a rocket that rushes up into space.
The first space rate remains behind, then the second, then-the third . . . The process of this escalation started from the moment of capture of Crimea in 2014, then accelerated by the war in the Donbass, then-a large-scale war in our country. In order to understand the value and scale of this escalation, it will be enough to say that Putin as a person who pressed the Start button in this process in this process, is no longer capable of stopping this missile. Even if he wanted.
But he does not want - in this "king" and his "boyars" are completely monolithic. Only rigid and enormous coercion can stop this movement of Putin Russia in the spiral of escalation. This is how Ronald Reagan used against the USSR. 4. The approval of the transition to a qualitatively new stage of escalation, the fourth - open kinetic military operations against Europe - undoubtedly Putin received from his closest great ally - Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Just as he received the same approval before invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At that time, on February 4, 2022, at a meeting in Beijing SI and Putin, they agreed to "Partnership without restrictions", which spread and support the invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine-and on February 24, Putin began a full-scale invasion of our country.
On September 2 this year, Putin's new meeting with SI, the Russian president, is swaying with the "unprecedented" relations of their countries-and on September 10, the invasion of Russian shock drones into the territory of NATO member country. 5.
Why is it a high likelihood of a significant increase in Putin's escalation in the next three weeks? Because on October 31, Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit, which will be held in South Korea, will discuss Big Deal between their countries and ceasefire in Ukraine may well be one of the options of their major agreement. What Trump himself said last month ago after a telephone conversation with SI.
He reported that between the conversations about Fentanyl and Tiktok, they also agreed that the war against our country should be finished . . . 6. In the conditions when the chances of becoming a third equal entity at a table of negotiations in South Korea in three weeks in Putin there is no opportunity to go to Russian. These two "great guys". And the escalation of aggression against NATO European countries is a trump # 1.
There is an important point here: Russian Piel is already enough "warmed up" by many years of consumption of products of life of domestic propaganda about the successful curbing of Nativ hawks. This "pep" does not strain that because of this imaginary curb, his bread has become smaller, but it eagerly awaits bright sights.
He wants to see the demonstration of the Mick of the "Second Army of the World" not pirated short raids of drones and planes high in the air, but in the picture, like boots of Russian soldiers walked through Nativ land. Even if it is just just a "creeper", which is difficult to identify, the Kremlin with the help of the media in detail will grace the deep Russian people about the success of the Crimean remake in Europe with "Zelny bones". 7.
In this way, Putin also hopes to strengthen not only his positions, but also the position of the Chinese leader before the dialogue of SI and Trump on the redistribution of spheres of influence and a new world order. That is, in the new escalation in Europe until October 31, US and China leaders are directly interested not only in Putin but also by Xi Jinping.