Complex scenario for Ukraine: what do Trump's first calls with Putin and Zelensky mean for Kiev

The peaceful process, launched by Trump, does not look the most favorable for Ukraine - but not everything in it is bad, says economist Timothy Milovanov. In fact, what the President of the United States is, can be considered a strategic victory for our country. Peace negotiations begin. Trump states that they will be conducted by Rubio (Secretary of State), Retcliffe (CIA chairman), Waltz (National Security Advisor) and Vitcoff (Special Representative, now in Russia).

Please note: There is no Kellogg in the list. In his post on Truth Social Trump writes about Common Sense to stop war. There are no specifics - only about the cessation of deaths of Ukrainians and Russians. The sequence of these calls is not in favor of Ukraine, but the very fact of declaring formal negotiations is a plus. The worst scenario for Ukraine: continuation of the war without supporting the US or lack of formal settlement after a truce and no security guarantees.

The head of the Pentagon today stated the guarantees: NATO will not be there, there are no borders by 2014 too. This is so clear to everyone. He also confirmed that there will be no US troops in Ukraine. What will happen? It is unclear. But the red lines for Ukraine are the complete lack of security guarantees, demilitarization and delivery of even more territory. This is what Russia demanded in June last year.

I am optimistic: Ukraine will receive real security guarantees and new business partnerships with the United States. It is a strategic victory of Ukraine. Of course, Russia will declare its "victory" for internal consumption. But will the sanctions be lifted and returned to the West? Only partially, and unlikely. As a result, Russia invaded, killed hundreds of thousands of people, equalized several cities with the ground - and remained isolated from the event. Was it worth it? Common Sense says no.