China Vs Taiwan: By 2027 it will be clear whether the China is needed. Parsing the interview of the CIA head
But in an interview, China was still discussed: Burns said that China Si Jinping was ordered by China's People's Liberation Army to be ready for Taiwan's occupation by 2027. Let us analyze this interview in the context of my analysis of the prospects for China's attack on Taiwan. My analysis clearly outlined the boundaries - I analyzed the operation that had to start in the coming months or years. Until 2027, four to five years still remained. It's a lot.
And this is an indicative term, that is, it can be extended (or not: later). Apparently, China also believes that the attack is unlikely to be effective and successful if the PRC starts the operation earlier and the available forces. If it is necessary to attack in the near future, the mobilization of China before the attack will be powerful, but hardly systemic (because it is not enough time).
Is it possible to say in this case that China started the mobilization announced in my analysis, but decided to make it more stretched and systemic? Let's see what the CIA chairman said. I will quote straight quotations so that nothing is confused. Because functionaries of this level are very careful in their own statements. "A FEW WEEKS BEFORE PUTIN LAUNCHED HIS INVASION IN UKRAINE, WHEN WHO AT The WINTER OLYMPICS IN BEIJING, They PROCLAIMED A FRIENDSIP WITHOUT LIMITS.
SOMITS "A few weeks before Russian President Vladimir Putin began an invasion of Ukraine when they (Putin and Xi Jinping. In fact, it has certain limits. " That is, Burns says that before the invasion of SI, Putin's unlimited loan of trust, but something happened. Burns directly says what happened. "BUT IS Been Interesting To Watch The Chinese Leadership's Reaction to the War in Ukraine. I don't't't't't'yegrn LEADER HAS PAID MORE CAREFUL ATTENTION TO THAT WARTHIN HINCON In Taiwan and Elsewhere.
" "But it was interesting to watch the Chinese leadership reaction to Ukraine. I do not think that no foreign leader paid such close attention to this war and bad military results of Russia than Xi Jinping, because he thinks of his own ambitions in Taiwan and in other countries ". The CIA, apparently, came to the same conclusion as I came to. The course of our war has adjusted the plans of these regarding the prospects of attack on Taiwan.
And now he looks carefully at the results of the Russian military operation. It is interesting how the CIA avoids any statements regarding political structures around our war. A single word about NATO and the EU. Purely about the military aspect.
The journalist asked Burns directly if the CIA was waiting for the invasion of the invasion (I Mean in this Next Year or So)? CIA Answer: "YES, I'M NOT Sure IF I WOURT MEASURE IT IN TERMS OF MONTHS OR YEAR, But I Wuld Not UndertIstmitate for A Moment, Nor DO Any of My Colleagues Here at Ciane. , in Other Words, to Unify Beijing and Taiwan on the Prc's Terms. He's Insted Publicly That His Preference Is To Do Not The Use of Force. But We Know Thus Launch A War.
And so i THINK The HONEST Answer is, The Further You Get Into this Decade, The Greater The Risks of a Military Conflict. " "Yes, I am not sure that I would have measured it for months or a year, but I would not underestimate for a moment, and none of my colleagues here at the CIA did not underestimate, the desire to control Taiwan, in other words, to unite Beijing and Taiwan into China's conditions.
He publicly insisted that he prefers to do it without the use It is decades, the risks of military conflict are greater. " What is the sacredness of 2027 for China according to the CIA, Burns does not say directly, but the CIA seems to have concluded what I came to. The next congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in 2027. That is, the decision to attack will greatly depend on internal Chinese problems and schedules. These need to give something to the Communists and the people.
To give a goal. Some kind of future that explains why it is all and where China will go. But Burns cannot speak directly, because any of his words can be used by the PDA for internal repression. Therefore, simply "2027". That is, according to the CIA, it will be clear by 2027 whether this war is needed at all. But China is preparing. At the same time, the CIA does not rule out that China's operation may begin earlier. Burns also talks about other internal challenges facing China.
"China, as we saw in the expressions of FRUSTRATION IN THE STREET Over Zero Covid-19 Policy, As Wese Seie in the Reality That China's Economic Growth Figures Are Now at a Lows Lows Lows. Control and Order, that sometimes comes at the expense of Economic Common Sense Sense as Well. And that Can Have an Impact on Technological Innovation and Everything Else Over Time.
"China, as we saw in the expressions of disappointment on the streets because of zero tolerance policies for Covid-19, as we see in reality that China's economic growth has now reached a historic minimum, we see realistically that, given the priority of this Chinese leadership on control and control and control and the order that sometimes happens through economic common sense. And this can eventually affect technological innovations and everything else.
" That is, the situation in China is difficult for Xi Jinping. Yes, its leadership and fullness of power are not in doubt. But China's economic model is not acceptable for Chinese elites right now. Burns does not mention China's political landscape, but the situation is not easy for these. Therefore, the head of the PRC told the army to be prepared for any result, because closer to 2027 there may be a situation where there will be no other options in addition to "Malenkoy Pabedonos".
It will not be politically and economically, and therefore, the general generals, we invite you to the trench. Whether there will be a shadow mobilization of China by 2027 successful, if mobilization is really shadow. Most likely, the path that China and SI people will choose will be about the purely technical and logistical element of the Chinese army. These elements are able to build up with high probability. Missile weapons and fleet modernization plans may be adjusted.
Aviation ammunition may be promoted and aviation development will be chosen with a dense air defense. But China will not be able to check how it works in practice. The Middle Kingdom needs a fundamental other army, but such an army of SI cannot afford purely politically. Therefore, the Chinese army will remain with the same problems until 2027, but it will become somewhat more efficient in the elements, which are most likely not to win Taiwan Highly.
Namely, I consider the high likelihood of a rapid victory of China when deciding to start the operation. It seems that the CIA considers the same way, because they looked very carefully at what conclusions it would come to, given our war. The high probability will be a cornerstone in most options, except for the emergence of very negative trends within China. And in order for the operation to be effective, an army that SI cannot afford. And now I'm not about money, but about the principle.
Because in the face of an unstable internal situation, to create an independent army, which is fighting on its own initiative, is a very high risk. It is impossible to take the commissioners from the Communist Army, it is impossible to give the leadership of army generals - this is contrary to the essence of communist ideology.
Because the Communists always look at the army, as competitors, as soon as the army in the communist country begins to be independent, the party elite begins to shoot on the basements. And then she begins to oppress the army. If it has time. Therefore, in 2026 and 2027, the CCP will have the same problems and questions before starting Taiwan surgery, which it still has. But by that time, the result achieved by Putin will be forgotten. And maybe not.
Well, I am not really sure that these will not be able to give China any purpose. China is a huge country where they really exist (or existed, to say it is difficult) elites and mechanisms that are able to make decisions. The China may find some new solutions. There may be solutions that I do not consider to be capable. Everything can be, so I cannot be sure of my own conclusion. I just consider the ability of SI and PDA to get out of the situation very unlikely.