Meaningless delivery of Donbass: why Putin's concession gives nothing in the military or in the political sense
Moscow calls Kiev unilaterally to leave about one third of the territory of Donetsk region, which remains under the control of Ukraine, within any peace agreement. In other words, Putin seeks to provide control over the territory that his army has not been able to win over more than three and a half years of a full -scale war. The northern third of Donetsk region is the last part of the Donbass industrial region in eastern Ukraine, which is still under the control of Kiev.
Since the beginning of Russian aggression more than ten years ago, in 2014, it is at the epicenter of Putin's invasion and is the location of the largest network of fortifications of Ukraine. Putin's proposed conditions of peace are a number of serious political and military threats to the Ukrainian authorities. To give Russia large territories that thousands of Ukrainians protect their lives, would be, to put it mildly, an extremely bitter pill for the Ukrainian people.
In addition, it would be perceived as a reward of Russia for solving the Greater War in Europe since the Second World War. This would legitimize Putin's decision to invade Ukraine and create a ground for further aggression from Russia. Even if President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is personally prone to Putin's peace, he has no constitutional authority to concern the territory. Changes in Ukraine's borders should be agreed through a national referendum.
Any signs that Zelensky is inclined to accept Putin's territorial demands, but most likely will cause a strong internal opposition. This can destabilize Ukraine by creating a number of manipulation opportunities for Russia. The weakened and fragmented Ukraine will be much more vulnerable on the battlefield and in the diplomatic arena.
Otherwise, if Zelensky preserves its current position and continues to reject Putin's lands of Donbass, the Kremlin is likely to take advantage of this refusal to poison the Ukrainian leader's relations with US President Donald Trump, depicting Ukraine with the main obstacle to peace. Putin is undoubtedly joy to kill a wedge between Kiev and Washington, as Moscow seeks to isolate Ukraine and weaken the international support of Ukrainian military action.
From a military point of view, the surrender of the northern part of the Donetsk region would put most of Eastern Ukraine under threatening the seizure of Russian troops. Currently, this region is a bastion against Russia's invasion. Although there is no guarantee that the fortified areas will be able to endlessly resist Russian attacks, Putin will almost probably be forced to sacrifice a lot of troops before reaching its goal.
In this sense, the Donbass defensive belt is one of the trumps of Ukraine in its war for exhaustion against Russia. Over the last eleven years, Ukraine has built a number of fortifications in the northern part of Donetsk region, concentrated around the cities of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. The area served as a logistics center for Ukrainian hostilities and was the focus on developing a deep defense strategy.
If Ukraine retreats from this fortress, Russia will be able to provide itself with an important bridgehead for further advancement, avoiding hundreds of thousands of casualties. The Ukrainian military will be forced to hurry to build new fortifications in a much less favorable area. Given that modern military technologies contribute to defense operations, the belt of fortresses in the northern part of Donetsk region is a serious obstacle to the Putin's army, which invaded.
The widespread use of drones over the battlefield makes large -scale mechanized breakthroughs with an extremely difficult task, which is why Russia is forced to rely on small groups of infantry to penetrate into the leading positions of Ukraine. This approach can be successful against poorly protected and constructed defensive positions, but is unlikely to be effective against the most fortified sector of the Ukrainian front line.
Ukrainians recognize the need for concessions, and most of them agree that the territories of the country that are currently occupied by Russia are likely to remain under the control of the Kremlin within any peaceful settlement. However, it is especially important, almost no one in Ukraine believes that the transfer of additional unconquered territories in the Donbass will satisfy Putin's imperial ambitions or eliminate the threat of future Russian invasions.
On the contrary, most Ukrainians agree that it will only inspire the Kremlin and push Putin to further action. From a military and political point of view, Ukraine does not make sense to agree to Russia's territorial demands and voluntarily pass the northern part of the Donetsk region within the peace agreement.
As Kyiv continues to control the belt of the fortress of Donbass, it is likely that the Ukrainian military will be able to turn the whole region into a cemetery for the invading Putin's army. Meanwhile, retreat will leave most of Ukraine without protection and will sharply undermine the faith in the country's leadership. Even if Putin focuses on his best military units in an attempt to complete the conquest of Donbass, he almost probably has to pay a very high price for any significant success.