Israel's attack on Iran: how Putin can use a conflict against Ukraine
Its key purpose is the country's representatives to eliminate the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons, reports Times of Israel with reference to the Army of Israel. The newspaper adds that the tacham states, they say, Iranian has sufficiently enriched uranium to create several bombs for several days, and he needs to take steps against this "inevitable threat". Iran nuclear program is a cornerstone in the conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
Since the mid-1990s, Israel has been extremely concerned about the restoration of developments in this area, which were suspended after the Islamic Revolution in the late 1970s. Israel is convinced that Iran subsequently resumed its nuclear program for only one purpose - the destruction of the Jewish state. However, Tehran insists that the program is only peaceful. With the help of one of its main allies - the US - Israel has been trying to prevent nuclear weapons in Iran for years.
On April 1, 2024, Israel struck an air strike on the Iran consultant in the capital of Syria Damascus. The attack took place on the night of April 14. The Islamic Republic has released 185 drones, 36 winged missiles and 110 lands "Earth - Earth" on Israel. Almost all of them were intercepted. Thus, Iran first struck a direct blow to Israel directly from its territory, not with the help of regional proxy - Yemen rebels "Ansar Allah" (Hussites) or "Hezbolla".
At the same time, both groups were supported by Iranian blows on Israel. Last year's April Middle Eastern exacerbation has become the largest in many years. From that moment on, analysts began to think seriously about the possibility of the beginning of the Great and Prolonged War in the Middle East. A new exacerbation between Israel and Iran will not bring any global-negative consequences for Ukraine, political scientist Igor Reitrovich is convinced.
“Yes, the information will now be more drawn to the Middle Eastern conflict rather than the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, I do not exclude in general some positive nuances for us. First, Israel attacks a country that is an actual ally of the Russian Federation and helps it fight against Ukraine. Secondly, in this case, Russia will not be able to help Tehran that he will once again demonstrate that Putin is engaged in global "divorces", talking about a strategic partnership.
In the end, the third point is that the main consequence of all this story may be that Trump, having received such a powerful slap, may change his attitude to the Russian-Ukrainian war, which is also addressed by his special messenger Vitcoff, who has failed in the Middle East. Middle Eastern exacerbation, suggests a political scientist, can eventually "reformat" Donald Trump's attitude to Russia and make him realize that sometimes peace is better to achieve peace.
“Russia will receive a serious reputational blow from the Middle East. And as for oil prices, fluctuations towards increasing its value will, of course, will be, but they will not be critical of the situation, since they will not allow Russia to earn significantly. These fluctuations, as a new round of conflict between Israel and Iran, will be short -lived for one simple reason: there is no land border between them.
That is, during the week, plus/minus they can exchange air strikes, ballistic missiles, Shahmed, etc. , and then all this will end and will be a lull again, ”Igor Reitrovich sums up.
At the same time, the candidate of political sciences, an international expert Stanislav Zelikhovsky in a conversation with focus emphasizes: “Israel performs his anti-Iranian operation, if not in cooperation, then with close agreement with the US side and accordingly we now understand the USA release from the East, and on the region. another. It is clear that this was done for the safety of Israel and the US military who are there.
I think for some time the situation in the region will be quite tense, but I do not exclude that Washington will still be able to force Iran to agree on the signing of the so -called nuclear agreement in order to make it impossible to further develop Tehran weapons of mass destruction. " It is through the resolution of the Middle Eastern conflict that Donald Trump, says the expert, wants to compensate for his failures to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Noting that the current round of the Middle East confrontation would not be too long, Stanislav Zelikhovsky stated: “In this case, it is about operation with quite specific tasks, the realization of which was probably prescribed from" a "to" A ". Therefore, in my opinion, the conflict will not be long, but again, it is unfortunately distracting from Ukraine. And not only is the attention, unfortunately. Even if you take the same 20,000 missiles that were envisaged by Ukraine.
The United States passed them to the Middle East, despite the fact that we are also at risk of rocket-arable blows from the Russian Federation. That is, this distraction has negative consequences for us. " The key risk for Ukraine that carries the current Middle Eastern exacerbation, according to Stanislav Zelikhovsky, is that Russia can play the situation and get even more loyalty from the White House.
The expert assumes, will try to "sell" itself as a force that can influence Iran, and this can eventually lead to Washington in the subsequent peaceful negotiations of Kyiv and Moscow, will play a field on the Russian side in one way or another, "tie Ukraine. " Such a scenario analyst considers the greatest danger and challenge for Ukraine.