Collapse squeezed imperceptibly: that can lose Ukrainian energy earlier than rocket

For two years, the Ukrainian power system survives under the sight of Russian rockets and drones. But, the economist Andrian Prokip warns, there is no less terrible danger that can paralyze the entire market - these are common debts that have entangled the industry. Collapse crashed unnoticed? For two years, the Ukrainian power system under the sight of Russian rockets and drones. Despite dozens of massive and hundreds of small shelling, we still stay with light.

And the problem could come from where they did not expect (although in fact everyone realized that it was a delayed bomb) - it's debt. Imagine that the electricity market can be paralyzed due to the accumulated debts and a shaft of claims between companies with the requirements of payment of debt and arrests of accounts with the executive service? There are tens of billion hryvnias in the electricity market.

And these debts form a chain - because of those who at the beginning of this chain, all other market participants are not received. Yes, Energoatom and Ukrenergo are guilty of a guaranteed buyer. Due to the fact that the guaranteed buyer does not receive funds, he does not pay full for the manufacturers of RES and universal service suppliers (they deliver electricity to the population). And the navels (universal services - F. ), for their part, do not pay full oblenergo and Ukrenergo.

Namely, Ukrenergo and facilities are repairing networks after Russian air attacks and providing the restoration of networks and power supply. And at some point, one of the market participants is called for debt collection. Naturally, the court will be on the plaintiff's side and will oblige the other party not only to pay the debt, but also the penalties and compensation for inflation. What will the company be filed against? She will also go to court to collect the debts that are guilty of her.

As a result, all companies will go to courts and for each market participant will be required to pay debt, fines and compensation. Therefore, these payments will be added to the debts of existing ones. The winning will only be an executive service that receives a percentage of such decisions. But companies have no money to execute a court decision. Then the executive service begins to arrest all market players. And the work of the market is paralyzed.

There will be no money to carry out elementary repairs. And winter begins and shelling is activated. And there is information that some companies have gone to court. Some of the energy companies are natural monopolies, which is determined by the regulator - NERCEP. And here in the tariff do not set money on payment of fines, penalties and compensation of inflation. These companies simply do not have the money to make such payment.

And the reason for the problem in particular is that the NERCEP approved the low tariff for these companies, in particular Ukrenergo. In 2022, the regulator recommended not to go to courts with a request for debt collection. But the recommendation is uncertain. The regulator, the government and the parliament must urgently take measures to prevent market paralysis. We will not repeat that the tariff for the transfer of electricity "Ukrenergo" should be adequate and cover all costs.

Energoatom has additional funds after raising the tariff for the population. And there is information that the company will pay debts. But if the Ukrenergo tariff is scarce again, then the problem will not disappear anywhere. Some industrial electricity consumers will shake the situation, trying to form an opinion that the tariff for electricity transmission should not be raised. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.