Two steps in favor of Ukraine: what is going to do Biden and how it will change the course of war
As we can see, even the most common societies are experiencing a complex social, demographic, worldview crisis. In these circumstances, we, as people within the process, have to be extremely patient. In what condition is Ukraine now? Not really. Both morally and financially. Everyone is tired. Of course, away to varying degrees. But fatigue is felt by everyone. Fatigue gives rise to irritation. Fear is anger. Both individual and collective.
On the enemy, on their own and foreign politicians, on fellow citizens. But we are insured by the self -regulation of social processes in democracy. What is the state of Russia now? Wants to pretend that ok. But in reality - not very much. Given the basic advantages of scale and resource, if it cannot quickly realize this advantage - this advantage is not as big as the Russians want to do. Russia continues to play in the great bluff of its own insurmountability.
But he is even afraid of talk about foreign troops in Ukraine and permission to beat in its territory. What is China there? China, on the one hand, has been experiencing the greatest economic crisis since the beginning of the Economic Miracle. On the other hand, it continues the policy to undermine the trust between the US and Europe and the attack on democracy. Xi tries to balance, avoiding direct supply of weapons of Russia and saying that China wishes peace.
However, China is the largest supplier of double -use goods, machines, microelectronics. What is the state of our allies now? On the one hand, uncertainty is still underway due to the reluctance of direct escalation and through political challenges (elections - 2024 in the United States) and a complex balance of power in the world. On the other hand, "red lines" are viewed.
Both under the pressure of circumstances (the new offensive of Russia from the territory of Russia) and because the old "red lines" did not lead to anything. The world hegemon cannot determine how to combine the fight against internal problems and external challenges. The task for us and our partners is to move this specific balance in our direction.
Today it became known that Biden is considering two tools to support Ukraine: these steps will mean a significant escalation of Biden's policy, which is trying to help Ukraine and avoid direct confrontation with Russia and the PRC. But even one of these steps is able to change the balance towards Ukraine. The main news for us now is to unlock the discussion about foreign troops in Ukraine, though in the form of instructors, although in the form of peacekeepers.
This generally shifts the discussion for help in a positive discourse. In addition, support programs are restored and scaled. Srick today calculated that from June to the end of the year we will receive 150-180 thousand shells a month. That will provide us with 5-6 thousand shots a day. Which, given the greater accuracy of our artillery, is very good. Record help packages are provided by Sweden, France, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands. The Swedes generally transmit planes.
But this does not indicate any positive trend right now. Because you will not return the lost time. Severe and risky politically and security decisions are made slowly. Therefore, the situation remains extremely uncertain. In such circumstances, the basis of our policy is to endure and make a minimum of candid nonsense. In fact, the strategy of Ukraine and Putin has now become very similar to expectations. He waits for us to fall, or the conditions for his negotiations.
We are waiting for the same - falling regime or changing circumstances for negotiations. With such a balance, the parties usually go to negotiations on conditions that do not suit both. But our key task is to preserve the state and its viability. It will be a victory. There is something to endure and wait for the opportunity to jump out of war. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.