"Feel in 2025": Budanov gave a forecast how a long war with the Russian Federation will develop
This was stated by the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR) Kirill Budanov in the article "If the war for a long time. What consequences will have a protracted confrontation for the Russian Federation and for Ukraine together with the event", published in NV November 2023. Budanov emphasized the likelihood of prolonged conflict, citing examples of unresolved territorial issues in the world.
He pointed to Russia's significant territorial appetites against Ukraine, not only in Crimea, and considers it probable to continue chaotic shelling without large -scale hostilities. "There are cases in history when ancient wars between states are not legally completed. A simple example - the Russian Federation and Japan, after 1945 they have never signed a peace treaty through the northern islands (which Russia calls Kuril).
This territorial problem is over 70 years, " - says the head of military intelligence. Answering questions about the terms of high intensity of military action of the Russian Federation, Budanov identified the factors that influence the future of the aggressor: changes in the economy, external supply of military equipment and the factor of fatigue of society from war.
The chief scout of Ukraine noted that the economic stability in Russia is still maintained, although the large -scale crisis and rising prices can be affected in 2025. However, in his opinion, the production chains in the country remain holistic. Budanov emphasized that fatigue from the war among the Russians is growing rapidly and the population is declining.
He expressed the opinion that 2025 could be a turning point for internal systemic changes in Russia, but emphasized that it was not a forecast, but expectations. "So far in the Russian Federation there is still economic stability. Yes, we see in them a large-scale crisis of fuel, a sharp rise in price of foodstuffs (in the last two months there twice jumped prices by 15-20%) and other goods and services.
It all shakes their economy And the social sphere, they feel real problems in 2025, " - said Budanov. However, according to Budanov, we should not forget that the war "globalizes and generates new processes every month. " "They [new processes] will also be imposed on the situation and will change any preliminary calculations. This is a challenge that the world's leading analysts have already encountered," the GUR Head said.
We will remind, on October 12, Budanov, answering the question of why his forecast for the end of the war in 2023 did not come true, said that Ukraine "got out of the schedule". On September 12, Kirill Budanov, the head of the GUR, expressed the opinion that the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war is possible only if the administrative borders, which operated in 1991, return to the administrative borders.