Subordination Problems: The Russian Federation cannot conduct coordinated defense - isw (photo)
This conclusion was reached by analysts of the American Institute for War Study (ISW) in its report, published on May 7. Thus, on May 6, Kadyrov published a letter in which he requested Russian President Vladimir Putin to order the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Rosgvard's director Viktor Zolotov to sanction the transfer of Chechen units "Akhmat" from "other directions" for the position of PEC "Wagner".
"Putin's Cadyrov's letter was sent bypassing the Russian command system, and the withdrawal of Chechen forces from other parts of the theater of hostilities was likely to be a risk for Russian defensive lines, the risk at which Gerasimov and Shoiga, or Putin, seemed to not want to go", " - The report says.
According to analysts, the departure of Akhmat's units from the Svatove-Kremin and Zaporizhzhya region could undermine defensive preparations of Russia before the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive. Defense Minister Sergei Shoig and Commander -in -Chief Valery Gerasimov may have decided to allocate ammunition to the Wagnerians at the instructions of President Vladimir Putin.
Analysts believe that the successful joint efforts of Kadyrov and Prigogine to blackmail indicate that Gerasimov does not really control all Russian forces in Ukraine, despite the fact that he is a nominal commander of the theater of military action. "Gerasimov probably tried to take control of all Russian irregular forces in the winter of 2023, but failed in this endeavor before he lost Putin's commitment in the spring," the ISW said.
Analysts believe that Kadyrov's motivation in this case was to restore his position in the Kremlin. Kadyrov lost his commitment, apparently, because his forces played a limited role in active fighting in Ukraine during the late fall of 2022 and the winter of 2023. "Putin humiliated Kadyrov during their meeting on March 13, when Kadyrov was noticeably nervous, reporting about the role of Chechen fighters in Ukraine. Kadyrov probably perceived the threats Winter and spring, "the report reads.
The ISW believes that Gerasimov's need to negotiate with his subordinate commanders and the ability of these commanders to impose his will shows that the problems of subordination significantly influence the ability of the Russian military to conduct agreed operations on the scale of the entire theater of military action.
"The position of common commander of the theater of hostilities in principle should allow Gerasimov to command any Russian unit or commander of the Land Forces in Ukraine, even those responsible for irregular formations such as Wagner and Akhmat. , for the most part, independent decisions on their strength can make, ”analysts added. Analysts believe that these events question Russia with the ability of Russia to coordinate a consistent defense campaign on the scale of the whole theater of war.
"The Russian military command seems to be increasingly delegating responsibility for different sections of the front in Ukraine by different Russian commanders, while the authorities of the Commander of the Theater of Miting continues to weaken," the report said. The deterioration of Gerasimov's ability to control his commanders, according to experts, will further limit the ability of the Russian military to conduct agreed operations with different zones of responsibility.
On May 5, Yevgeny Prigogin complained about a critical shortage of ammunition at Wagner PEC. He showed the corpses of many fighters who died in the day, on May 4, and swore to the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation: Minister of Defense Sergei Shoig and the Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Soon Evgeny Prigogin announced the release of Wagner PEC from Bakhmut on May 10 due to a shortage of weapons.
He stated that mercenaries plan to transfer positions regular parts of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. On the same day, Ramzan Kadyrov proposed to replace Wagner PEC in Bakhmut by Akhmat detachment. According to him, Chechen fighters are ready to occupy the city for several hours. On May 6, the chairman of the Wagner PEC Yevgeny Prigogin stated that his units would transfer positions in Bakhmut's Akhmat detachment from Chechnya.