Russia's economy is lying against the background of a large -scale crisis: Economist Vitaliy Shapran explained in detail
In Russia, the economic crisis is already in full swing today, and although the general statistics on the economy are still positive, but only at the expense of weapons costs, while almost all civilian industries show falls. Vitaliy Shapran, an economist, ex-member of the NBU Council told this. “Against the background of quite high inflation, it can be diagnosed that a full stagflation has begun and increased the risks of recession.
Companies are massively reducing investment programs, every second public company in Russia has declared a reduction in investment by 2025-2026. Swinging Urals Urals prices forced the Russian Ministry of Finance to review the budget to increase the deficit from the planned 1. 7 trillion rubles to 3. 8 trillion rubles. The budget hole is actively patchy due to the hidden issue, monthly through repo operation with large banks of the CBD feeds the budget with an emission ruble for 1. 1-1.
2 trillion rubles, ”Vitaliy Shapran said. In his opinion, even under such measures, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation was unable to hide the growth of the nominal budget deficit. “The acute crisis in coal, metallurgy, fishing industries and construction has led to a crisis in the local state finance system. The Government of the Kemerovo region did not receive from the Federal Center even 14 billion rubles, and now it is credited to the state VTB at 23% per annum.
Almost all significant federal projects in the regions are postponed for 3-5 years, last week they were added gas pipelines to Murmansk and Sakhalin, as well as a bridge across the river, ”the expert says. He added: a further decrease in the price of Urals oil to $ 50 against the background of increasing the intensity of hostilities will lead to a liquidity crisis in the state finance system in Russia, which has already begun in the regions but has not yet covered the Federal Center.
Recently, the crisis state of the economy of the Russian Federation was also noted by analyst Yevgeny Eastrebin, who noted that the receipt of funds to the escrow accounts is lagging behind the allocated project financing on 2,138 trillion rubles. «26-28%of project funding without escrow cover. The Bubble for the Chinese script is given.
No wonder Nabiulin "boils" a little that the funds for installments do not receive in the amount of 1-1,3 trillion rubles and this threatens all -developers, creditors and banks, ”the analyst wrote. We will remind, the Russian economy has problems, but the Kremlin is likely to be rescued at the expense of civilian Russians, said Ilya Neskodowski, the head of the analytical direction of the network of protection of national interests of ANTS.