Prepared surgery from the summer: in ISW explained why Russia attacked Poland
During the day, Poland confirmed the destruction of three devices and probably the fourth, which lasted about seven hours - from 23:30 on September 9 to 06:30 on September 10. Subsequently, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated that at least 24 Russian drones had entered the Polish space. In addition, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reported that Polish F-16, Dutch F-35, Italian aircraft of early AWACS and NATO refleiners were raised to reflect the attack.
The Polish authorities also brought their readiness to the German Patriot air defense systems, which also took part in the reflection of the invasion. On the same day, on the morning of September 10, TUSA applied Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which provides for consultations in cases where the security or territorial integrity of the Allies is at risk. This article was last used in February 2022 after a full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine.
In its material, ISW analysts note that the extent of the invasion eliminates chance. The likelihood that more than 19 drones at the same time have gone from the course or have been a victim of a technical error. Some of the apparatus were the UAV "Herbera", which Russia uses to simulate Shahd and provoke air defense.
According to Ukrainian expert Sergey Beskrest, one of the whipped drones was not a Gerbera reconnaissance version without cameras, that is, it was specially designed to distract the air defense system. The signs of Russia's preparation for this operation appeared in the summer of 2025. Polish journalist Marek Budzish reported that Russian drones with Polish and Lithuanian SIM cards were recorded in the reports of the Ukrainian military.
This could indicate the creation of "corridors" for blows around NATO countries. Beskrestnov also noted that Russian Shahd with Polish SIM cards appeared before the incident. According to the report, such details indicate that the invasion of September 9-10 could be planned in advance and aimed at checking the NATO reaction. At the same time, Russia has tried to shift the guilt to Ukraine.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that during night attacks in Ukraine drones could not reach the Polish territory, because their maximum range is allegedly 700 km. The Russian Foreign Ministry called Warsaw a "myths" message. The Kremlin has accused the EU and NATO of "unfounded" accusations through Dmitry Peskov. Meanwhile, Ukrainian sources claim that Russia could equip drones with additional fuel tanks, which significantly increased their radius.
In Poland, a temporary attorney in Russia's affairs Andrei Ordash was summoned to the Foreign Ministry. After the meeting, he repeated Russian statements that the drones allegedly were flying from Ukraine, and assured that Poland would not be able to prove their Russian origin. Belarus also tried to distinguish itself from the incident.
Major-General Pavel Muraveiko stated that flight trajectories could be violated due to unknown means of radio electronic struggle, and Belarusian troops allegedly destroyed some of the drones over their own territory. These explanations were made on the eve of the joint exercises "West-2025", which will be held on September 12-16 with the participation of Belarusian and Russian troops.
ISW believes that Russia is trying not only to check the combat capabilities of Poland and NATO, but also the speed of decision -making in the Alliance command structures. According to NATO, this was the first time that the Alliance aircraft was directly faced with the air threat over the block. In addition, the Kremlin probably tests the political stability and readiness of NATO Member States to collective defense.
It is also reported that some drones could move in the direction of the Rzeszow-Yianka Airport, the main logistics unit for the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine. In this way, Moscow could strive to limit Kiev's military support. The report also states that Russian milblogists were actively disseminating versions that removed responsibility from Moscow. They argued that drones could be Ukrainian, or that their trajectory had changed through the work of the Ukrainian systems of HPs.
Some have called for future blows in Poland and European defense enterprises. Despite these statements, the event intensified Ukraine's support. So, on September 9-10, partners at the Ramstein meeting announced new help packages: earlier Focus wrote that 38% of Poles were convinced that Ukraine was guilty of fluttering drones over Poland. In this narrative, drones could have been part of provocation to involve Poland and NATO in conflict with Russia.