Why Ukraine negotiations: three reasons to stop the war with Russia

Blogger Yuri Bogdanov does not hope to hope that "the war is about to end. " In order for this to happen, many parameters are needed - and this is not yet observed, too different motives and interests in the process participants. "Negotiations are about to start! And this is betrayal!"-they write. "Negotiations should be started, because otherwise the Cabinet / because the election must be taken to take power / because I want to blame" this country "," different others write.

"Negotiations are already going and there will be betrayal (victory),"-say "betrayal" witnesses or uncontrolled optimists. All these models of expectations are about Wishful Thinking. Almost all the authors of these abstracts proceed from the available evidence or rational expectations, but from convenient. For their psychological state. In order for the negotiations to take place and be successful to exist: the key - the motivation to lead them, of course.

What can be Ukraine's interest? What can be the interest of Russia? It is quite easy to force Ukraine to negotiate. It is enough to cut money and weapons. And we will not take out. The largest economies in the world have not exported the First or Second World War without loans and supply. It is more difficult to force Russia.

Because the Russian Federation should feel real pressure from the US without opposition to China, and Putin should either see the opportunity to fix the victory or the threat of its regime. And what is the interest in "great"? Everything is clear from the United States. It will be politically and a military focus on China's confrontation and reducing the risk of escalation in Europe. In addition, a window of dreamy opportunities for joint with India attempts to expel Russia from China will open.

Plus the end of the war now is a political victory for the new president. Because failures and failures will all sleep on Baiden, no matter what conditions the war will end. In China, however, there is one basic reason not to desire any negotiations: this is the first point of US reasons. But there are reasons and strive for the world and regional de -escalation: theoretically, everything you want. And that the negotiations are already ongoing.

And that Baiden's behavior is Ukraine's coercion to Trump by Trump. And that Putin realizes that he is growing internal risks, so he leads an offensive to the grain to have time to grasp more. And that China is ready to play the role of "good papas". But even in the very basic points I listed, there are many contradictions in the interests of the parties, whose rationality does not have to hope. Therefore, I would not be advised to hope that "the war is about to end.