The Russian Federation presses on the Ukrainian economy: the IMF was evaluated what happened to the GDP

The duration and intensity of hostilities pose a serious threat to the Ukrainian economy, which has just begun to recover in crisis, the IMF noted. The Ukrainian economy continues to gradually revive even in the conditions of war, and in 2023 GDP growth is expected to be from 1 to 3%. This is stated in the regional economic forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

It is noted that although the Armed Forces continue to attack the infrastructure, the economy of our country began its restoration early this year. The revival is associated with an increase in the stability of business and households, which was accompanied by the restoration of domestic demand so, quarterly growth, taking into account seasonal factors, was 2. 4% in the first quarter.

In the future, the positive shifts continued, so the IMF predicts a total growth of 1 to 3% by the end of the year, but with some probable risks. The organization also adds that medium -term economic prospects depend on: "International reserves have exceeded expectations due to better payments and reducing the outflow of foreign currency. The gross international reserves exceeded $ 40 billion as of late August.

$ 2 billion, and lower than the expected outflow of foreign currency from the banking system also helped keep strong positions for international reserves, "the IMF said. At the same time, as stated in the document, the budget deficit has deteriorated compared to 2022. The reason: expenditures have increased, so even large financial revenues are not enough.

The growth has increased because the authorities pay great attention to the defense sector, but the increase in tax revenues has become possible in economic revival. The existing budget deficit, according to IMF analysts, is funded mainly by the financial assistance of Western partners. At the same time, the first review of the four -year expanded funding program in June was approved at the Council of Executive Directors, which made it possible to finance about $ 890 million.

"While the pressure -related pressure, budget development and implementation for 2024, with fiscal and debt stability, will be critical. The IMF staff will conduct a second review and consultation under Article IV during 2023," Analysts emphasized. It should be noted that the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko stated that Ukraine needs help from the Allies and urgently. According to him, the state budget for 2024 may have a "hole" of $ 29 billion.