The offensive of the Russian Federation on Kharkiv: experts named 2 elements of Ukrainian defense, which will be beat by the Russian Federation

To spread: if in the summer of 2025 Russia will be able to capture the Donetsk region, it will begin the offensive on Kharkiv. By the fall of this year, the Russian Federation will try to take the maximum on the battlefield, so it will be to activate its efforts at the front and will affect two basic elements of Ukrainian defense. About it writes the analytical British center Rusi. It is noted that Russia will seek to increase offensive operations to create pressure during negotiations.

In April and early May 2025, there was a decrease in the intensity of Russian operations, partly as a result of demonstration "ceasefire" for Easter and Victory Day, as well as the redeployment of forces after the withdrawal of the Defense Forces of Ukraine from Kursk region. Changing commanders and accumulating the reserves of technology, Russia is now ready to increase the pace and extent of attacks, but the Russians lack the power qualities for such actions.

Instead, the summer offensive will probably have a soft start with a constant increase in the number and extent of attacks in the expanded area around the main axis and now there are signs that this process has already begun. The main efforts of Russia in the summer will be again directed against the key cities of Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk to complete the occupation of Donetsk region.

Along with the intensification of attempts to seize territories, Russia also introduces innovations to develop ways to weaken Ukraine's rowed defense against Russian drones. Ukraine has been expanding its opportunities to knock down Russian intelligence drones with the help of its own drones-interceptors, thereby blinding the units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which are fired by the Ukrainian rear with planning bombs and ballistic missiles.

Ukrainian interceptors are cited with small radars, and Russia is now systematically working on determining the location and targeting these radar stations. Another important area of ​​effort for Russians is attacks on pilots of Ukrainian drones. Here, the methodology is to use dialectation, radio electronic intelligence and exploration to determine the location of pilots, and then target them with wired controlled drones and planning bombs.

This has become more effective because Russia has increased the rate of information transmission between its units. Separately from the Russian attacks on the front will continue the high rate of deep blows in Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure and bases. The Russians understand that it affects the civilian population in Ukraine and the international community.

The Kremlin wants to hint at the deterioration of the situation as the negotiation continues and signal Europe that the rear is dangerous to reflect the desire of the European military to place forces in the country. Experts believe that the defense forces are waiting for difficult 4 months, since the financial support of the United States is exhausted.

This will question the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones and artillery operations, as well as the ability of the Ukrainian command to store their troops and the continuity of supply from international partners of Ukraine. Rusi writes that it is hope that US President Donald Trump is disappointed with Russia's steadfast and that the US will start pressing on Russia.

I will also have a certain effect of imposing sanctions against the Russian Federation, which can cause a lack of ammunition and armored vehicles. At the same time, although Russia can spend two more seasons of campaigns with its current approach to the recruitment, further offensive operations in 2026 will probably require further forced mobilization, which is difficult both from political and economic. Russia's economic prospects also worsen with the approach of 2026.

More aggressive measures against the Russian shadow fleet and the continuation of the Ukrainian Deep Broken Campaign can reduce liquid capital, which still allowed Russia to steadily increase the production of defense products and offer huge bonuses to volunteers entering the army.

If Ukraine is able to prevent Russia from reaching the borders of Donetsk by Christmas, and Kyiv's international partners will hardly worsen Russia's economy, Moscow will face a difficult choice of costs that it is ready to bear for the continuation of the war. In such circumstances, Russians can go from talks about negotiations to actual negotiations.