Babak Day in Istanbul: Why negotiations of Ukraine and Russia are not approaching peace

Both sides are still in a deadly race before the war, both are convinced that moving forward will be less fatal than inhibition. Such a summary of Ukraine and Russia negotiates Owen Matthewz in a spectator column. Chihagan was "Babak's Day" in the Istanbul Palace. On the one hand, a long number of young Russian officials with poor faces, who were known only by the most devoted Kremlin, sat on the one hand of the large conference room.

On the other hand, a more influential and courageous group of Ukrainians, many of whom were dressed in military uniforms that meet NATO standards. Both came to spend another day of their time. No significant issue was discussed during the hourly meeting, no topic was raised for discussion, no way to peace was opened. Despite the high hopes, the Istanbul peaceful process seems to be stillborn.

Even after weeks and months of high -level diplomacy, Donald Trump and his envoys, neither Russia nor Ukraine have changed their harsh positions. Or, saying the language of poker, which Trump was so rough, accusing Vladimir Zelensky of "no maps for the game" during their catastrophic meeting in the oval office in February, neither Moscow nor Kiev is not ready to make cards, and put them in cash.

However, there was one noticeable difference between the atmosphere of yesterday's negotiations and those that had passed a week earlier. The Russian delegation was clearly closed against the backdrop of the news that Ukrainian drones had penetrated deep into Siberia and Arctic, destroying 41 Russian strategic bombers worth almost $ 7 billion. An unprecedented Ukrainian raid has largely marked a new chapter in the chronicle of an asymmetric war.

And even though the more sober examination reduced the score to 12 destroyed bombers, not 40, which sound less gorgeous, such blows undoubtedly increase. Not to mention a number of custom murder of high -ranking Russian military. But the little triumph of Ukraine - the long -awaited light spot in a continuous flow of military failures - also marks another turning point.

From Trump's inauguration Washington and Trump himself constantly force Kiev to cancel one "red line" by another in the interests of the beginning of the peace process. Moscow, on the other hand, did not feel such pressure. But in Istanbul it became known that the mechanism has returned, and that Ukraine refuses to simply capitulate, as Putin ordered her - actually supported by Trump.

In particular, the Ukrainian delegation clearly stated in its program document three key requirements that the Trump administration insists: joining NATO, the creation of international peacekeeping forces on the ground that will include Nativ troops, and Russia's compensation for harm caused by war. For Moscow, all these three requirements are the terms of the non -discussion agreement. The bad news is that the last Kremlin's theses are just as rigidly formulated and as unattainable.

Putin's requirements are divided into four wide categories. The first is territorial: the Kremlin demands that Ukraine be completely removed from four partially occupied regions (Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia), which Putin claims, and then officially recognize them with Russian territory.

The second requirement is the military: the Kremlin demands the constant neutrality of Ukraine and the promises of NATO that Kiev will never join this organization, as well as a ban on the presence of NATO troops in the country and limitation of the number of Kiev forces.

The third requirement is cultural: to make Russian in the official language of Ukraine, to return the confiscated property of the Russian Orthodox Church and to prohibit the "glorification and propaganda of Nazism and neonacism", including the disbanding of combat units, such as Azov. Russia's recent requirements are economic, including the complete abolition of all sanctions, the restoration of all economic and diplomatic relations and the restoration of gas transit to Europe.

Finally, the most annoying, Russian negotiators require new elections in Ukraine and form a new government before any long-term peace agreement is signed. From the Kremlin's point of view, negotiations in Istanbul are not conducted to find a peaceful compromise, but, as former President Dmitry Medvedev said directly to achieve Russia's victory and "complete destruction of the neo -Nazi" regime in Kiev.

What remains Trump, which has increasingly expressed his disappointment in the negotiations and inaccuracy of Putin in recent weeks? Zelensky Headquarters Andriy Yermak - dressed, unlike his boss, in a business suit, not in military uniform - went to Washington to try to restore the US military support of his country's military efforts and force the White House to apply serious sanctions against Russia.

The task of Yermak is to show that the attacks on the airfields show that the war is not really lost and there are cards in Ukraine. But it also seems that Kyiv has started attacks without warning and consultations with Washington. Yermak may deny that Russian Tu-95 bombers who have nuclear potential were deliberately left unharmed during raids to prevent a direct attack on Moscow's nuclear potential.

But he will have to work hard to convince MAGA voters - many of whom are outraged by the campaign of Ukraine against the Russian Orthodox Church - the continuation of the support of Zelensky's regime in the US. The first rounds of peace talks between Kiev and Moscow in Minsk, Antalya and Istanbul in the first two months after the full -scale invasion of Putin were secretly behind the closed doors. Current negotiations, on the contrary, are unlikely to be more public.

"The leakage is in real time," says historian Sergei Radchenko from John Hopkins' Promising International Research School. "It means that they are not real positions: it's just propaganda. " Every day of the negotiations will remain "Babak's Day" until something is changed on the ground. Kiev hopes that it will be an economic collapse of Russia or a political reaction to increasing deep blows to its military, energy and infrastructure.

Putin hopes that the new ground offensive, which he collects in Sumy and Donbass, will strike on the Ukrainian military, and also counts on European disconnection and indifference from the Trump administration. But both parties are still in the deadly racing to continue violence and chaos, both are convinced that moving forward will be less fatal than inhibition. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.