Russia undermines Ukraine from the inside. Why did hunting for military and corrupt officials have begun
In two months (the idea that the "counter -offensive" began on June 4, let it be), the list of what "did not turn out", it looks like this: it is all on the surface. This does not mean that the front is easy. On the contrary, it is very difficult. Loss. But if you add a little qualitative parameters that operate the military (involvement of Rosreservov before preserving ours, destabilization of logistics and managing of rogrogroup, etc.
), we see that on the battlefield a trend for the Russian Federation is bad. It is not fast but inevitable. Therefore, the Russians try to expand the battlefield asymmetrical measures asymmetric measures - in the international arena and within Ukraine. The friction of the Wagnerians in Belarus, murmur to Lithuania and Poland. Withdrawal from the Grain Agreement, blows on Ukrainian infrastructure to undermine food security, the opening of the Second Front in Africa.
These are all attempts to create additional crisis points for Ukraine's partners. In a short segment, it can work. But the "second front" also needs to be provided. It may happen that in the pursuit of the change of newly created problems for concessions against Ukraine, Russians will burn a shortage of resource and instead of concessions provoke increased pressure. The summit in Vilnius, Meetings in Copenhagen/Jeddy, and an unreasonable forum in St.
Petersburg showed that playing in one gate (as it was before) the Russians would not work. In my opinion, the more or less rational scenario, which is calculated in the Kremlin-that can wait for another major crisis (A la Iran-Israel). Or at least stretch until spring, when electoral cycles will force Western politicians to demonstrate some positive international agenda ("negotiations"). That is, on the international track there is an exchange of blows.
Until we have the opportunity to "sell" visual success (first of all - the liberation of the territories), it is not easy for our allies. A month later (before the start of the political season), the picture may be different. Therefore, Moscow is invested right now to create the most negative background and try to slow down Ukraine's support programs. The only vector where Moscow has success is the situation within Ukraine. I used to focus on this. So - they work in the sweat of the forehead.
If you use metaphors: On the Internet full video, as the old grandfather method in the quarry splits huge cliffs. Drill holes, insert pins, and then strike them with a dose to cause a crack of the desired configuration. Cheap and angry. Effectively when the direction of the fault is properly set.
Russia drills the maximum number of openings and is methodically split as long as the situation contributes to: due to the temporary absence of visible dynamics and the transformation of epic events A la incident with a bridge to the routine at the forefront will come out a political age We eat ourselves. The tactics of the Russians bring results because they manipulate real problems and sewer energy that has arisen into their favorable direction.
The main lines of split are (there is nothing fundamentally new). As you know, everything we do not like in the world of information is IPSO. Now all that we do not like in the material world is corruption (from rudeness in the tram to the purchase of drums, which looks untimely, but could be quite honest). When hyperactive creatures at all angles are heralded that "overdue receivables are corruption", even dispersal reasons for acceleration do not need to be sought.
Further, the corruption track splits into plots. Example. There are problems with the military - the Russians fit into this story: from the creation of fakes to the escalation of righteous anger. Now all military committees are automatically "corrupt officials". Even those who were transferred from the front a week ago. The frontal consequence is a disruption of mobilization. The next step is to block the departure to the front by outraged loved ones, who will consider any mobilization by injustice.
Up to the acts of sabotage on infrastructure. The disruption of mobilization is the impossibility of rotation - the threat of subsidence on the front. Since no one will hear the call to separate the bad military committees from the good, so as not to destroy the function of replenishing the army itself, this is a very likely scenario. The comments will probably come to people who will say that it is an attempt to make problems on Russia. You can think so, but the Russians fit into these moves.
I did not emphasize - they parasitize on real problems and seek that instead of solving these problems we deal with self -destruction. Because there is no sense of measure. All this bustle prepares the soil for a blow, which will obviously be in the fall. Its essence is the question "Who is to blame?" And variations of answers. "Who is guilty that the Russians after 16-17-18 . . . The months of war (the number of months must be added) fired Lviv/Kharkiv/Odessa? Russians-enemies, is it obvious.
But who is guilty? The government that has not resolved the issue with the air defense? And maybe we have praised our air defense? We will be separated and lose. In recent weeks, I have been watching a very clear trend: taboo is removed for unconstructive criticism of the military command. Military-political leadership was still accused of anything, and now the Teflon defense is gradually disappearing. Again - eyeliner due to real problems with further escalation.
A la who subordinate to the military? To whom are military physicians subordinate? Who plans the operations? Etc. And in parallel, two funnels are created: 1) good commanders in the middle link - bad generals; 2) Good generals - bad medium commanders. Each is involved in sympathizers, the self -rotation of the plots begins.
A little bit of mobilization - we will slow down a little, slightly undermine confidence in the command - we will slow down, direct to the search for the guilty - many will stop at all. And here's all this beauty is just perfect to show our partners. Like, look, your Ukrainians have bravely fought for a year and a half, we recognize, but more they can not be put on them, they will pour . . .
Why is it very dangerous? In the last few months, I have repeatedly wrote in the last few months: after the issue of Western weapons has been resolved, the next global task is long -term support programs, integration into the process of defense planning of the Allies. The process is going on right now. Budgets for 2024 are now being staged. Now - given our war - the military plans of NATO countries and other partners are reviewing.
If we are properly presented in these documents - therefore, at the summit in Washington, we can count on a breakthrough. And the issue of integration in the EU will go more fun. And on suicide negotiations for Ukraine will not make sense. If we punch, we will be told "wait, set aside there for starters" - positions will be much weaker, and bad scenarios - much more . . . Together. Many risks will automatically disappear as it will be a clear success in the battlefield.