Armistice on May 9: Why Putin's three -day "silence" and how he will take advantage
The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "the initiative on a temporary truce remains relevant on holidays. " At the same time, he complained about the absence of "signals" by Ukraine on his readiness to support such a truce on May 9, a traditional day of militaristic celebrations. Kyiv, he said, "demonstrates an approach aimed at continuing the war. " Peskov also reported that Putin "gave" all the necessary instructions "command of the occupying army to observe the truce.
However, the Kremlin warned that in the case of attacks from the Armed Forces on the day of victory, Russia will answer "adequately". Meanwhile, the Russian military command formally pledged to stop the fire during this period. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky reminded what the Russian promises of peace were worth: during the so -called "Easter armistice" from April 19 to April 21, 2025, the invaders made more than one hundred storms of Ukrainian positions.
In turn, the British media notes that the end of the war against Ukraine can allow the Kremlin to transfer resources to pressure against other countries in Europe, while Ukraine's accession to NATO still looks like a distant perspective. According to political expert Alexei Golubotsky, Ukraine has not yet responded to the proposal for a truce - and, judging by rhetoric, does not intend to do so. He emphasizes: Moscow declared "silence" unilaterally, without any negotiations with Kiev.
Golubotsky also drew attention to Donald Trump's words, who, in his opinion, testify to the positive attitude of the US President to the idea of a truce. Trump did not speak against and even noted that the ceasefire should be longer than it was during a failure of the Easter truce. The expert does not exclude that Washington may try to persuade Kiev to agree to a short cease ceasefire - at least three days.
However, in his opinion, for Ukraine, such a scenario is rather disadvantage: "In fact, it gives the impression that we agree on a symbolic pause that does not decide anything strategically - only plays on the hand of the aggressor," - says Focus political expert. Political scientist Oleg Posternak outlined three key factors that can affect the truce. The first is the presence of high -ranking guests in Moscow, including delegations from China.
According to the expert, Kiev tries to avoid exacerbation with Beijing, as China remains one of the few global players capable of influencing Russia's position and potentially playing a role in peaceful settlement. The second factor is the probable appearance of American representatives at the May 9th parade. "It is rumored that the US government may be present in the West. Although it looks unlikely that there is anything from the current US administration," Poster said in talking with focus.
The third is the tone of dialogue between Kiev and Washington. According to the expert, Ukraine's refusal of Ukraine can be a reputational challenge against the background of individual diplomatic successes in relations with the United States. Potnak warns that Putin will certainly take advantage of this. "In the presence of honorary guests on Red Square, he will first say that you see that Ukraine does not want peace.
It will be the ideal reason for the Kremlin propaganda," the political scientist says. Political scientist Igor Reityrovich will also doubt the parties. This is due to the fact that Ukraine did not give its consent to the ceasefire. The expert expressed skepticism about the expediency of this truce and he is convinced that Russia will violate the truce.
"I am convinced that before and during and during them will still go for violations, provoke, manipulate and try to a priori make Ukraine guilty," says Focus Reitrovich. Political expert Alexei Golubotsky believes that Putin's main goal is to hold a parade on May 9 without excesses, in a "calm and solemn" atmosphere. This, in particular, indicates the concentration of air defense forces in the capital of the Russian Federation. "Almost half of the country's air defense system was drawn to Moscow.
There is practically no point in hitting it - it was turned into a fortress," he said. Also, according to Golubotsky, the idea of the May truce for Russia is an attempt to win time and create the illusion of constructiveness. The Kremlin hopes to impose negotiations on the most favorable conditions for Ukraine and the West. "Everyone is well aware: this is the most convenient situation for Putin.
And the fact that Trump is now" knocked out "from Ukraine and Europe - referring to the conditional plan of Keller - in no way guarantees a long peace for Ukraine or the world," the expert summed up. Igor Reityrovich also agrees that the main purpose of the truce is Putin's desire to calmly hold a parade. The political scientist noted that Putin also "tries to present himself as a certain peacekeeper" and accuse Ukraine of violations of the truce.
He added that this is a Trump signal: "Look, I'm not as bad as I think of me, I am including trying to do some right things there. " According to Oleg Posternak, the May truce creates military risks for the Ukrainian army, in particular Russia can use it to strengthen the position at the front.
"From the military-strategic point of view, the truce for Ukraine is a critical factor, since the Easter ceasefire has shown that the Russians use some silence in the local areas of the front to occupy the gray zone, equip their positions and create a platform for further deployment," It should be reminded that on May 7, Donald Trump Special Supporter Kit Kelloggus acknowledged that the actual freezing of the war. He explained that a demilitarized area of 30 kilometers could be created.