Destructive but insufficient: long -range punches in warehouses are little useful for the Armed Forces - Forbes
This is stated in Forbes, published on March 25. In August 2024, a new UAV factory was erected in the RF Orlovsk region, and four months later production was ready for the release of "Shahanedov". Ukrainian intelligence was closely monitored for what happened, and on December 26 the object attacked Storm Shadow missiles. The Armed Forces General Staff announced the destruction of the base of storage, maintenance and repair of drones, which consisted of several reinforced concrete shelves.
The next blow, which was made on January 26, increased the losses. In total, at least two hundred drones were burned. However, as noted in the media, Russia produces almost a thousand "shamed" a month. The destruction of 200 units may have only reduced the intensity of enemy attacks by several weeks or months. In general, the results of the campaign of long -range strikes in warehouses and factories in the Russian Federation were evaluated as "ambiguous".
Attacks in the Orel region probably saved a certain number of lives. However, they, like other attacks for explosive purposes, affect visually by fire balls and fall on dramatic videos, but they do not change the fundamental problem. Carnegi, a scientist Michael Kafman, has explained that both parties were trying to "overcome the prepared defense" for the International Peace. However, although deep blows have an impact on the Russian forces, the Armed Forces "is often unable to" use it.
In particular, the forces of defense are not particularly useful to undermine the stock of Russian heavy mortars, when the adjacent corps is clamped by minefields and requires live force for the offensive. The publication emphasized that attacks deep into military supply - impress but do not have a decisive role. In the analytical group Fronetelligence Insight evaluated the impact of most of the beats from September to February as "limited".
UAVs and rockets could hit several factories and warehouses in the Russian Federation, provoking terrible fires. However, the fire was eventually extinguished and the workers returned to their work. It is noted that more frequent attacks can cause long damage. However, Ukraine lacks the best long-range shells of foreign production to start a constant and intensive campaign against logistics. Domestic ammunition is not enough for it.
However, in recent months, Ukraine has changed the course of its attacks, now the strikes are aimed at oil infrastructure, namely oil refineries. Analysts emphasized that these structures are technically complex and expensive, for hostile oil refineries and exports they are more important, and to restore them more difficult and more expensive. According to Fronetelligence Insight, recent attacks have caused losses of $ 658-863 million.
At the same time, in total, the aggressor country has earned $ 189 billion on oil exports. While strokes on the refinery are too rare and insufficiently destructive to harm the hostile economy and change the course of the war, but it can change. "In order to enhance the effect of blows, Ukrainian troops should carry out regular attacks on large unique cracking installations at modern Russian oil refineries," analysts said. These are installations that break down raw oil into useful products.
They are extremely difficult to replace in the conditions imposed on Russia. At the same time, accurate and frequent blows will be able to interfere with their repair. It could do enough harm to Russia to end the war on favorable conditions. Recall that British intelligence has revealed the most successful attack on Russia for 2025. The Defense Ministry emphasized that Russian air defense continues to be difficult to protect strategic military facilities.