"Nuclear Bomb and Three Line": Analysts modeled four scripts for the future army of the Russian Federation

To spread: The US Corporation Rand has appreciated 4 possible scenarios that the army of Russia can follow to recover. However, these scenarios did not meet the West. The report is presented on Rand. Analysts have focused on the probable "political settlement" of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war. The full version of this study was published in February 2025, and a short statement was published at the end of March this year.

The text outlines four options for further development in the Russian army. The first scenario of the development of the Armed Forces of Russia can be conditionally described as the "inertial path of shoig". It is a continuation of the implementation of re -equipment programs started during the stay of Sergiy Shoig as the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation in 2012-2023. In this embodiment, the army develops according to previously laid plans, without significant conceptual changes.

It is expected that the number of servicemen can increase to 1. 5 million by 2027. The second option can be conditionally marked as a "nuclear bomb and a three -line". It provides an emphasis on large but poorly equipped and poorly prepared land forces, combined with the rate on the nuclear arsenal as a tool for intimidating the event. According to this approach, the number of personnel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation by 2027 can increase to 1. 5–3 million.

The training of the military will take place mainly on simulators, and shock drones will play a major role in hostilities. The third scenario can be called "hybrid-rocket". In this case, Russia will focus on the development of long -range missile systems, tactical and strategic aviation, as well as expand the methods of completing the army - with the active involvement of private military companies.

In case of exacerbation of conflict with NATO countries, the main rate will be struck on critical infrastructure objects by conventional ammunition. The fourth variant involves the complete transformation of the Russian army according to the concept of "network -centric war". In this case, special attention will be paid to digitalization and automation of combat processes, as well as technological imports by allies on the "axis of evil".

For example, it is about the transition to 155 mm artillery systems of Chinese production, which has already been mentioned by some Russian military analysts. Analysts from Rand believe that the choice of the Russian leadership of each of the above variants will depend on several factors, including the level of success of "political settlement".

"Although there is still no final solution to the problem of war in Ukraine, how the conflict will end will affect the lessons that Russia will take out of this conflict, and, as a consequence, the decision that Russia will make about the restoration of its armed forces," the authors note. We will remind that the head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky reported that Russian troops have already launched active offensive actions in the directions of Sumy and Kharkiv regions.