New amounts of military gathering in Ukraine: whether deposits will increase from deposits
For example, the head of the Verkhovna Rada Financial Committee Danilo Hetmantsev recently made a proposal to strengthen the funding of defense due to the introduction of mandatory purchase of military bonds by citizens.
What about the planned increase in taxes and how will the profitability of bank deposits change? President Volodymyr Zelensky received the bill "On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine on the peculiarities of taxation during the martial law" On a record increase in taxes, including an increase in military levy from 1. 5% to 5%. This means that citizens' income will be taxed retrospectively.
Increase in deposits, according to experts, it is an obvious disadvantage to the received income of citizens from January 1, 2025 to other income of citizens (except salaries) will increase from 1. 5% to 5% from January 1, 2025. For FOPs 1, 2 and 4 groups, the military levy will be 10% of the minimum wage set for the 1st day of the reporting month. Now it is 800 UAH per month. Group 3 FOPs will pay 1% of the income in the form of a military levy.
"It is not yet clear whether the signature in the current version or it is necessary to look for other additional forms of filling. For example, today it was proved to start a hetman's discussion of mandatory redemption of bonds of internal government loans of Ukraine (T -bills) in the amount of 7% of taxable income," - The financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn recalled in a focus comment.
According to economic analyst, raising military levy for deposits, is an obvious minus to the income of citizens. In the case of signing the draft law on income on deposits, they will not deduct 1. 5% of the fee, but 5%. Since deposit income is also deducted income tax (PIT), the total amount of deduction from the income received will be 23%. In addition to 18% of income tax, there will be an additional 5% of the military levy (OT).
Thus, at an annual deposit rate of 13%, the depositor will receive only 10% "except 18% of the income tax, will be an additional 5% of military levy (VZ). Thus, at an annual deposit rate of 13%, the depositor will receive net only 10%, " - says Andrey Shevchyshyn. However, the number of deposits in banks will not be able to influence it, because experts explain, Ukrainians are not too many options for saving money. "Here is not linear.
The reason is that the number of available savings tools is very small - deposits, currency, efficiency, real estate, gold. And deposits - the most simple and affordable tool. It is attractive to the population (since taxes are not spaced), but because of low literacy, people will be afraid of bonds so they will remain on deposits, because it is simple and convenient, " - explained Andriy Shevchyshyn. The analyst's opinion is agreed by Unex Bank Marketing Director Alina Kompanets.
At the request of focus, she commented on the situation with a decrease in profitability due to an increase in military levy and an increase in taxes from deposit income. "In itself, in a" refined "form, an increase in collection will not be able to influence the curiosity of Ukrainians in the term deposits in national currency.
Purely mathematically, the main thing is that the real rate, that is, the profitability of the deposit after taxation and in the light of inflation, remained positive" - explained the specialist of the bank. Increasing the collection will not be able to influence the curiosity of Ukrainians in term deposits in national currency.
Purely mathematically, the main thing is that the real rate, that is, the profitability of the deposit after taxation and in the light of inflation, remained positive, however, she added, each person decides for himself whether she is ready to invest on a fixed deposit. And here are additional factors: inflation expectations, subjective estimates of the hryvnia to foreign currencies in the future, and generally expectations for the future.
"No rate will make a person invest money for a deposit even for a few months, if she believes that because of the high risk of occurrence of certain events, they may need it in a week or a month. That is, it is a comprehensive assessment that is very often subject to mathematical approaches, but but Subjective feeling, " - added Alina Kompan.
In 2024, due to a set of factors, in particular, as a result of a decrease in rates, demand for term deposits among the population has declined significantly, the bank said. In the fall, inflation began to accelerate, adversely affecting the real rate. And the increase in the military levy, of course, additionally presses on the attractiveness of the savings tool.
In 2024, due to a set of factors, in particular, as a result of a decrease in rates, demand for term deposits among the population has significantly declined "however, in the last few weeks a group of banks, among which, incidentally, there are retail segment leaders, began to increase deposit rates.
So if the index is UIRD, which is calculated at the rates of 20 largest financial institutions, continues to keep the bar of 13% per annum for deposits in UAH for a period of 3 to 12 months, then from banks of smaller size Ukrainians can receive 15% -16% per annum for deposits from deposits three months, "the expert explained.
It should be noted that the UIRD index is a recognized market rate indicator, which is calculated on a daily basis at nominal rates of the 20 largest (by size of the deposit portfolio of individuals) banks. As of November 7, the UIRD on a deposit in UAH for 3 months is 12. 85% per annum, for six months - 12. 75%, and for a year - 12. 61% per annum. It should be noted that by the end of 2024, inflation will accelerate up to 9. 7%, so now, term deposits in banks cover the forecast level of inflation.