The Russian Federation will continue to invest in war and receive weapons from abroad and in 2026-ISW
The authors of the publication refer to the statements of the head of GUR Kiril Budanova, who the day before at the 20th YES forum in Kiev stated that in the Kremlin the year 2025 is considered turning on, because the inability to win the victory until the beginning of 2026 will undermine the desire of the Russian Federation to remain the world superpower for the next 30 years.
According to Budanov, the Russian Federation expects a deterioration of economic and socio-political situation by mid-2025, as well as difficulties with a set into the army. According to Budanov, the Russian military feel a lack of personnel and volunteers who sign contracts. Increasing lump sum payments to contractors (more than $ 11,000), probably, is a difficulty in a set of growing personnel.
Budanov also stated that the emergence of the Armed Forces in the Kursk region and strikes in the Russian Federation demoralized Russian citizens. According to him, the President of Russian Vladimir Putin will continue to announce mobilization or reduce the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine. Budanov's estimates indirectly indicate that Western countries will maintain Ukraine's support for the next 1-2 years.
It remains unclear what measures the Kremlin can take until 2026 or how effective will it be effective to compensate for the consequences of war, in particular through foreign partners - Iran, North Korea and China. ISW continues to believe that Putin still does not tend to declare another partial mobilization, fearing internal dissatisfaction. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will probably continue current efforts on hidden mobilization.
Until these efforts are lagging behind the operational needs in Ukraine. Putin has the opportunity to declare another stage of mobilization - as in the fall of 2022 - despite his desire to avoid it. At the same time, according to analysts, the Kremlin also do not want to reduce the intensity of hostilities, as they consider preserving the initiative throughout the front with a strategic imperative.
It remains unclear whether Putin will declare a new mobilization if it encounters a new crisis similar or serious than in the fall of 2022, since Russia's investments in the replenishment of the army, military economy and international military cooperation over the past two years have increased significantly and are likely to last. 2026. It should be reminded that, according to analysts, the Armed Forces advanced in Glushkiv district of Kursk region.