The fall of the regime in Moscow will happen instantly: where will the revolution or civil war begin with
The raids of the Freedom of Russia and the Russian Volunteer Corps in the Belgorod region showed complete insecurity of the Russian borders and the inability of the army and special services to respond promptly and adequately to the situation. The fighters, who were dubbed "saboteurs" in Russia for two days in a row freely moved the territory of the region and left it with trophies in the form of military equipment of border guards.
Recall that in the Russian Federation border troops are included in the structure of the Federal Security Service. In the General Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, they have already predicted that in the future such raids may have continuation, and in the territory of the Russian Federation still there are RDC fighters. "Resistance in Russia is gaining momentum.
Some of the fighters of the Legion" Freedom of Russia "and" Russian Volunteer Corps "remain in the territory of Russia and continue the struggle and recruitment of new supporters," said GUR Andriy Yusov. At the same time, Ukraine does not officially recognize its involvement in this raids in the territory of the Russian Federation.
It should be noted that in an interview, representatives of the RDC and the LSR noted that their goal was to fight the regime of President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, not against the population. Earlier, the Russians could be verified in the ineffective work of their air defense, when in the regions far from the border from Ukraine from the strikes of unknown drones began to burn oil and warehouses. The apogee was an attack on the Kremlin on the night of May 3.
Already on May 13, two Mi-8 helicopters were shot in the Bryansk region, two assault rifles-Su-34 and Su-35. What caused the loss of aviation equipment together with the crews the Russian authorities did not clearly explain. Russian propaganda reacted very late to the RDC raids to the Belgorod region, in the evening news showed destroyed military equipment, which later turned out to be fake production and liquidated soldiers who were not shown on the camera.
For the pathos and scale of the picture, the saboteurs were sent "heavy artillery" in the person of Colonel-General Alexander Lapin. That is, the operation was not commanded by a lieutenant or captain of the border detachment, but immediately the head of the main headquarters - the first deputy commander -in -chief of the Russian Land Forces. "Putin's nuance is that they create and exist in a certain virtual autocracy, its main resource is the creation of the necessary reality.
The Kremlin is accustomed that reality can be adjusted as they need. But Putin's regime is poorly adaptive to real calls. There can To silence for a few days, then to deny what was wrong - drawing your scenario. And then, in general, to ban it. Remember the story with the Moscow rocket launcher, the official version was not in that place. That is, propaganda submitted completely wild versions not to admit that it was the success of the Ukrainian operation.
In other words, the Russians proved that the ship served full of disappropons, which did not understand what they could not do, and the flagship of the Black Sea Federation is so short -lived that it could sink from the cigarette The focus says political scientist Petro Oleshchuk.
Successful actions of "saboteurs" in the border immediately provoked conversations about the likelihood of starting in the Russian Federation against Putin's regime, more bold spoke about the civil war, drawing an analogy with 1917. Russia has already lost more than 200,000 people killed and injured in the war in Ukraine.
According to GRU estimates in Ukraine, there are still about 400 thousand Russian military, the preparation and coordination of "mobik", which have not managed to destroy in the battles for Bakhmut, is being completed. In addition to the RDC and the LSR, it is worth mentioning the "Siberian Battalion", which in early April 2023 was declared by a veteran of the Russian special services Vladislav Ammosov.
In addition, it is necessary to take into account the factor of "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigogine, who returns from Bakhmut, while having an open public conflict with the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry. By and large, all this should contribute to the emergence of a certain critical mass among the Russian population. However, we did not hear any official statements from the liberal opposition.
Moreover, during the monitoring of local Belgorod telegrams, which allegedly remain free from the Kremlin censorship, no discussions were found to support the movement against Putin.
The main topics of the discussion - the destroyed and mutilated property of the locals, but not the question: why did it happen? The chairman of the Board of the Center for Applied Political Studies "Penta" Vladimir Fesenko believes that it is not necessary to talk about the probable beginning of the civil war in the Russian Federation. The Russian population is frightened by the fact that the war has come to their territory, and the elites are still controlling the situation.
"It is not worth talking about the civil war, but there are two factors in the future that can not disap on it in the future. First, this is the decision of the Kremlin elites, how long they will like it all. Second, it is a purest It shakes the situation in the country, although it is considered a Putin tool. There is a conflict in the Kremlin, but it will be difficult to speak into the hot phase now, "he says.
Focus has already said that Prigogine manages to successfully conduct an information campaign in Russia, receiving from that response from ordinary Russians and capitalizes it in political dividends. In Russian news ribbons, news about crimes committed by Wagner veterans. In this way, society is trying to train that there are thousands of "heads" in the country, which he still commands.
Notable is the news that a resident of Moscow was fined 50 thousand rubles for a sticker on a car with the call of Prigogine: "Shoggy, c*ka, where are shells?". That is, even in the capital of Russia there are those who do not support the official Kremlin line. Conversations about the Civil War in the Russian Federation can be planned information and psychological special operation, which in some way operates in favor of Ukraine.
The population is frightened by the likelihood of hostilities should think about the prospect of supporting Putin and his policy. According to political scientist Oleg Saakyan, it is not necessary to talk about the growth of critical mass in the Russian Federation, it is not the country where society has an impact on power and plays a role.
All changes in power in Russia are due to revolutions, so society needs to be prepared for the fact that the old government has lost its influence and the new will be better. However, it notes a certain change in mood in the middle of Russia, which can indicate certain processes. "According to the sociological data that can be obtained from liberal centers and information field monitoring, we can conclude that socio-political tension and anxiety are growing in Russia.
Inside the country, there are certain processes of confrontation, Remember the Conflict of Prigogin-Show, the Kremlin's towers' struggle "For the distribution and resources during the war. Putin was a referee above these processes, now we note that he was back and does not participate," he explains focus. "We would like to believe that all this indicates the thunder of a social rebellion, which gradually gradually He rolls into a public confrontation. But not war.
Whether it is possible to predict the civil war in the Russian Federation. " Petro Oleshchuk explains that Russia is a classic strong authoritarian regime, with one ruler, the absence of a system of restraints and balances, police terror. The regime itself is maintained in the collective combination of Putin's interests and elites. At the same time, the Russian president is very careful for the elite and the leadership of the army. "No matter how funny and toxic to Medvedev, it is in power.
A similar situation with Putin generals - they are removed for failures, but subsequently appointed to other equally high positions. While everyone manages to negotiate and rally Strong. But no one knows when it can collapse. Historically, it is so that the change in Russia is being destroyed instantly. Remember 1917 or 1991. Such a rapid collapse of the USSR was able ", - Oleshchuk notes.
Meanwhile, disputes have already begun among Russian propagandists or it is worth arming the population in the border areas with Ukraine. The first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Security and Combating Corruption Andriy Lugovy (the same person involved in the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in November 2006) took this initiative. He proposes to immediately issue small arms, grenades, manual anti -tank grenade launchers so -called territorial defense.