Even without great breakthroughs of the Armed Forces: negotiations of Ukraine and the Russian Federation - a bad idea for the United States - Foreign Policy

After the respondents got acquainted with the facts, supporters of Ukraine support became 18% more. The United States spends only 3% of its military budget on Ukraine, Ukraine retains control over 83% of the territory, and the US intelligence believes that the war has significantly undermined the military potential of the Russian Federation. Calls for negotiations with Russia have been heard from the very beginning of a full -scale invasion, and the causes change at every stage of the war.

This is written in the article for Foreign Policy, Raphael Cohen, director of the Program of Strategies and Doctrines in the Rand Corporation's Air Force.

The Armed Forces may not be able to cause the military defeat of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, so the event should be negotiated; Ukraine has been able to survive, but will not get more - peaceful negotiations are needed; Ukraine wins too quickly - it is necessary to allow the President of the Russian Federation Putin to keep his face (suddenly he decided the whole world - on gunpowder); The war is too expensive - send diplomats, etc.

The new argument is that Washington was pressed on Kiev and pushed to the negotiations, and, in other words, to surrender - the Americans have concerned about the weapons supplied by Ukraine. The list of combat losses (killed and wounded) both Ukrainian and Russian military in Ukraine, according to some estimates, exceeds half a million people.

So why not sign a deal of conflict, and thus potentially save tens of thousands of lives and save billions of dollars? But in the case of close consideration, the mentioned arguments will seem incapable. According to some surveys, Americans already support the allocation of assistance to Ukraine. But, according to research, the fall in support, especially among Republicans, is associated with general doubts about President Joe Biden's policy, and not with the support of Ukraine as such.

In June, this was confirmed by the Institute. R. Reagan: 50% of respondents supported Ukraine.

After responding to respondents, reported that the United States "spent approximately $ 24 billion on military assistance to Ukraine, which is approximately 3% of the US military budget" and that "Ukraine retains control over 83% of its territory and intelligence The United States believes that the war significantly undermined the military potential of the Russian Federation and the ability to threaten NATO allies, "Ukraine's supporters were 18% more among those who call themselves Republicans, and 12% more among Democrats.

Therefore, the current decline in Ukraine's support may be associated not so much with Washington's foreign policy, but with a lack of information. The same history is among legislators. It is impossible to say with certainty that Congress supports the idea of ​​negotiations with the Russian Federation.

Although some in the House of Representatives want to stop the support of Ukraine, many republican senators, on the contrary, criticize Biden administration and demand more active military assistance in Kiev. Historians also express the opinion that the slow supply of weapons to Ukraine has contributed to the fact that the Russians were able to dig and gain in captured positions. In this case, there is a fall in the economy of the Russian Federation.

After temporary stabilization, the Russian ruble continued to fall. Countries with natural oil reserves lack fuel. The Russian Federation now spends about 30% of the national budget for defense. All this tension affects the Russians, although in authoritarian countries it is still difficult to find out what people think through the censorship of information. More and more cases where representatives of the Russian elite have died or seriously ill in mysterious circumstances.

In general, no one knows where the dam will break, but the pressure obviously increases. At the same time, the author of the publication notes, it should be borne in mind that, according to polls, 84% of Ukrainians, that is, the vast majority, advocates for the continuation of the struggle. Kiev requires the return of its territories and prosecution of the perpetrators, but in the Russian Federation these calls prefer not to notice.

Russian officials and other persons regularly call for the destruction of Ukraine as a sovereign country, and, according to the results of the UN Human Rights Investigation, "rhetoric that heards in Russian state and other media can be equated with calls for genocide. " Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev promises that the war will continue to "complete destruction" of the Ukrainian government, and that more new regions will appear in the Russian Federation.

The Russians lure apartments in Kiev and Odessa after the victory of Russia, and some Russian generals say that Ukraine is just the first step to invade Europe. Ukraine's public calls for negotiations will not only lead to anything, but also show that the US lacks determination, the author notes. It would be a bad message in the world, full of aggressive, revisionist, authoritarian regimes.

And other democratic countries, such as Taiwan and Baltic countries, consider Ukraine's successful defense as vital to their own security. The United States simply cannot unilaterally complete the war in Ukraine, in which they are only indirectly involved, although it may seem convenient. It may be a bitter pill for someone, but if Ukraine pushes Ukraine, it will be even worse.