In the gray zone: the left bank of the Dnieper as a bridgehead to the future offensive of the Armed Forces
It indicates the Ukrainian forces hold some positions in the Krynki, which is 30 km east of Kherson, and continues limited attacks on the east bank of the Dnieper near the Antonov Railway Bridge - near the settlements of Podstropne, Pozma, Cossacks of Lageri. However, Americans in their statements refer to Russian sources, mostly telegrams.
At the same time, a spokeswoman for the united coordination press center of defense forces of southern Ukraine Natalia Humeniuk says that it is impossible to speak about planting the Ukrainian military on the left bank of the Kherson region in an affirmative tone. The chronology of the Ukrainian offensive is the first news that the Ukrainian forces forced the Dnieper to consolidate positions and prepare for the offensive on the left bank of the Kherson region, appeared on September 14 and 15.
At the same time, Russia stated that there was nothing new in such reports - the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been preparing to force the Dnieper since July. Around the same time, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Kirill Budanov in an interview with The Economist stated that the Ukrainian military may have time to break Russia's land corridor with Crimea before winter. And one of the likely paths is to force the Dnieper.
On October 17-18, the Institute for the Study of the War specified: these are separate units of two Ukrainian brigades of the Marine Infantry crossed the Dnieper River and landed on the left bank of the river in Kherson region. On October 20, Americans noted that the Ukrainian offensive on the left bank of the Dnieper in Kherson region seems large -scale than those raids that were before. Ukrainians control the shore along the Dnieper and near the Antonov Bridge.
It is interesting that at that moment President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Kherson region, held a meeting of the Headmaster of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny and awarded the warriors. The next day, the ISW experts said that the Armed Forces continue to conduct large -scale ones than usual operations on the left bank of the Kherson region. In particular, Ukrainian fighters are fighting in the village of Krynka.
At the same time, if you analyze Russian sources, it can be noticed that the Russians do not perceive the promotion of Ukrainian troops as a dangerous-not noticeable tossing troops, for example, from Avdiivka to reflect this blow. "Who is in Crimea, and I am in Krynka" - this statement belongs to the Ukrainian classics of satirical prose Ostap Cherry. He was in the Krynki on the Left Bank of Kherson region several times on vacation.
Perhaps not cherry or war, about a small village near the river Konka, 30 km east of Kherson, would have been heard. Before a full -scale invasion of it, less than a thousand people lived. The cribs were occupied by Russian troops on the first day of the Great War. After that, a considerable number of people left the village. As a result of the blasting of the Kakhovska hydroelectric power station, due to the proximity to the lower reaches of the Dnieper, the crust flooded.
People, escaping from the water, also escaped. After the water came down, the Russians equipped positions there and organized the composition of ammunition. A resident of Krynkov Vasyl, who left the village, says focus that it is completely destroyed. "You can say, there are no villages. At first the water, flooding on the roof, took its. From the houses there are some boxes. And also Russian mines that washed off the shore. People are afraid to approach the destroyed houses so as not to blow up.
It is probably a single settlement, probably What water has completely destroyed. Life will no longer be there, "he states. He tells that only those who do not go, where to go. "And then they live on cottages from the side of the corsunka in a large country cooperative. There the water came only on the knees, so they remained standing buildings," he said. Then shelling began. "The last weeks are very hot, constant. People are sitting on the basements. Artillery and mortars work," he continues.
"A few days ago the Russians were very frightened - ours hit somewhere well, were killed, fled and wounded. . When they departed, many Russian, they saw their equipment. The Russians went to abandoned houses - they were looking for if the Ukrainian military was left. " When asked about Ukrainian control over the wells, Basil answers skeptical: "Do not listen to military experts. In Kryni everything changes rapidly. Someone says to his native:" Hooray! We were already released, saw our boys.
" The villages are everywhere. We live. It arrives constantly and to the neighboring settlement - Cossacks Lageri. "What is happening there, it is difficult," says Vasily. "The Russians, as if, said that the people who remained there would not receive help until the war is over. Even cars with bread stopped missing, saying" There are fighting there " . "There is a video that shows that ours landed in the Krynki.
I could not identify the houses that are on the video, but judging by the appearance that opens on the river Konk and the Dnieper, it is the central part of the wells, - says the focus of Kherson political scientist Vladimir Molchanov. He suggests that then the Ukrainian groups went into the forest, which near the wells near the wells, where the pines approach the water. "Nobody saw the technique for sure, it is impossible to throw it through the Dnieper.
The only convenient place where you can throw pontoons - the area of Lviv settlement. There is no floodplains, and the water immediately begins," he continues. "The troops were trained in Soviet times. Through the Dnieper and counteract such pontoon crossings. The island on the Dnieper, which is there is also controlled by Ukraine. But the problem is that on the left bank the road leads to the settlement of Korsunka, where at least one and a half thousand Russians stand.
A separate motorized rifle brigade, which is accused of undermining the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, and reinforcement, which is thrown from the Zaporozhye direction. They are currently trying to step on the crusts, to no avail. The Russians also control the road road on Oleshki. It is enough to sit in the women's monastery. In order to overcome the Dnieper, you need to swim on boats, walk on foot - 200 meters, then move to boats again.
" According to military experts, in October 2023, units of two brigades of the Marines of Ukraine-the 36th and 35th Marine and 35. And this is not the first case - Ukrainians, indeed, are trying to prepare a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper. And for this purpose they have a certain stock - foreign partners transferred a certain number of different technical means to organize crossings, bridges, as well as landing boats.
In addition, the territory of 15-20 km along the Dnieper on the left bank is a gray zone, which are not controlled completely, although marked as occupied. Russian groups are also regularly moving there, which fire the right bank. But they immediately go deep because they are covered by Ukrainian artillery. The other two settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper, which are referred to in the reports of the Institute of War - Podkopne and Pozma.
They are closer to Kherson, below the Dnieper from the wells. They were led from the right bank by the railway bridge, which is now destroyed in the Konka River. "The main bridge was thwarted by the Russians on November 11, 2022. And through the competition it was whole. But now the pictures show that it lies above the water, but on it it is possible to move on it," - says Molchanov.
- And it was on it that on the night of October 18, the Armed Forces, indeed, advanced unexpectedly for the Russians along the railway to the village of Poza. They advanced on foot. They entered the village of Peschanovka. Then there were shootings. They came out and temporarily entrenched at the Tsyurupinsk railway station, which is immediately over the floodplains, where Oleshko's road - Nova Kakhovka passes. Then they entered the forest - it is 200 meters wide and a kilometer long.
At that moment, the locals in Peschans were sitting in the cellars, heard shootings. "After Molchanov, at least one local was injured, he was hospitalized. On October 23, Ukrainian forces were departed and in the area of these settlements. The control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "And then - in the area of Oleshok - Russian control. From there, they tried to send their DRG on the boats to the Antonov Railway Bridge. But there are cases of hitting on them.
The Russians also control several country cooperatives, from which Kherson is fired. But there is less shelling now because this area is under the fire control of the Armed Forces, " - continues the Kherson political scientist. The presence of Ukrainian defense forces in the left bank of the Dnieper is now providing prospects for advance techniques, artillery. It should be a lightning blow that will cut the enemy's defense and enter the administrative borders of Crimea.
At the same time, the Russians departed, it was possible to take positions in the forests on the hills. It is important that the pine forests that grow on Kuchugur have not been flooded. It would be possible to take a road that goes to Melitopol, because part of it was flooded, it could not be moved. It was possible, but it did not happen, " - adds Vladimir Molchanov. At present in this direction sufficient forces of the opponent.
The Russians planned to defend from the Dnieper from the very beginning. Before the blast of Kakhovka hydroelectric power station there was a rather powerful line of defense. Fortification structures remain. Now they have created another line of defense in case of Ukrainian breakthrough. It runs near settlements: Oleshki, saga, Chelburd, along the highway. Their plan is to create a boiler for three sides to cover fire on three sides.
And plans for the Ukrainian command - To go to the administrative border with Crimea, which the military-political leadership of Ukraine has declared more than once. If we talk about further actions. There may be several options. One of them is to act in the gray zone of the left shore from Nova Kakhovka to Delta. And also in Kinburn Kosi.
The other is to form a bridgehead, like, for example, Lutizhsky, that is, the one who was captured, where they could be entrenched and where you can transfer most of the troops with equipment. And the second option was the primary Ukrainian plan. But in 2023 these plans were not possible, because the Russians blew up the dam. The water spilled, went down, but left the wet soil, which the armored vehicles could not move.