Great war in the east. When and how Israel will answer Iran
As on September 11, 2001, it forced America to change its approach to the region, and the barbaric attack on October 7 and the war that is now being unfolded will probably make Israel watch policy on their enemies, and especially against Iran. The Iran-Israeli conflict remains an underestimated fault line in the Middle East.
As I argue in my book prepared for publication, Iran's desire to overthrow the Israeli state is a cornerstone of his regional foreign policy and has a significant impact on Lebanon, Syria and Iraq's policies. It is an ubiquitous factor in all regional conflicts in which Iran is involved, including Yemen, and this aspect of Iranian foreign policy has the greatest potential for igniting a larger war.
Although Israel did not blame for the terrorist attacks on Iran, the likelihood that at some point, Iran would be in one way or another in the relevant actions of Israel, is very high. In the meantime, Iran may consider that the deterioration of the situation in Israel and the destruction in Gaza correspond to its strategic interests. Focus translated the article by Afshon Ostovar about how the Middle East will change after Hamas attack on October 7.
In recent years, the Iran-Israeli enmity, which is fueled by the development of Iran's nuclear program and its campaign for the supply of weapons to allies in Lebanon, Syria and Gas, has steadily aggravated. The threat of Israel from Iran is obvious: the latter surrounded Israel with well -armed militants.
These groups - for example, Hamas, Hezbolla, Palestinian Islamic Jihad - share Iran's commitment to the destruction of Israel as a Jewish state and depend on Tehran's assistance in supporting their power and military power. In response to such provocations, Israel conducts murder and sabotage inside Iran aimed at restraining its nuclear, unmanned and missile programs, and also causes regular air strikes on Iranian military facilities and weapons supply channels in Syria.
The ability of Israel to penetrate the borders of Iran, killing military commanders and undermining carefully protected objects, gives the impression of playing one gate. Israel caused much more harm than Iran, and Iran's attempts to strike, for example, numerous conspiracies to kill high -ranking Israelites abroad, as a rule, failed. Moreover, Iran still was not able to strike a tangible blow inside Israel. Despite the active secret campaign of Israel, Iran did not give up.
What happened on October 7 became the fruit of Iran's hard efforts to strengthen combat groups and to undermine the sense of security of Israel. However, Hamas is just one of the components of Iran's wider and multi -vector strategy. And even if Israel manages to destroy or finally weaken Hamas, it will not put an end to the Iranian matrix of threats. Therefore, it is likely that the war in gas is only the beginning of a larger, prolonged and much more difficult conflict.
This does not necessarily mean that it will lead to an open regional war, but Israel is unlikely to be limited to gas and at some point, it is likely to pay attention to Iran. What role in the terrorist attacks on October 7 Iran could play until it is unclear. According to some reports, the Hamas Gazi Hamas representative said BBC that his group "received direct support from Iran".
The Wall Street Journal report provides the words of anonymous "Hamas and Hezbollah", who claim that Tehran sanctioned the terrorist attacks on October 2 and that members August.
Similarly, the New York Times, with reference to anonymous sources in Iran, related to the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution and the "Higher Management", and Syriac related to "Hezbolla", claims that the "narrow circle of Iran leaders," Hezbolla " But Hamas helped to plan the attack more than a year ago, prepared fighters and was informed in advance of him.
" The unprecedented nature of Hamas' invasion and the sophistication of his plan is confidential from the outside, and the corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution, which honed his skills in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, exceeds his powerful opponents in the conduct of asymmetric and guerrilla warfare. Although Iranian officials approve of these attacks, calling the operation of "Al-Ax", referring to the holy place in Jerusalem, they deny their involvement in them.
On Tuesday, High leader Ali Hamenei praised Hamas fighters who killed innocent men, women and children, saying, "We kiss the foreheads and hands of inventive and intelligent organizers of" this operation. At the same time, he spoke about Iran's not involvement: "Those who say that a recent saga is not a Palestinian hand is wrong.
" Even if the perennial financial and military support that the Iranian regime provides Hamas makes it an accomplice, Israel did not give any official instructions that Iran is directly involved in the terrorist attacks on October 7. The anonymous Israeli official stated CNN that although Iran could not know about the time of the attack, he knew about "Hamas's operation before it happened.
" American officials also did not conclude about the direct role of Iran, although they recognize that military support for Gaza groups provides at least indirect communication. Anonymous US officials have stated the New York Times that they have intelligence data that indicate that some Iranian officials, usually up -to -date, were surprised by terrorist attacks.
Morgan Myur, a high -ranking American intelligence officer, told members of Congress at a briefing that "US agencies have intelligence information that contrary to the statement that Iran helped plan the attack. " Therefore, the evidence of the possible involvement of Iran is still insufficient and contradictory.
Considering that neither Israeli nor American special services seemed to know about the attack for several months, until it was planned, and found nothing suspicious about the information they had, similar to the fact that a circle of hungry educated persons - as in the same Hamasi, and in third -party organizations that could support this operation, was minimal, and those who knew the details carefully protected this information from external observation.
It is also likely that the planning of this attack was very closed, and even those members of Hamas who participated in it knew only their limited roles in the overall scenario. Of course, the clarity in this matter will come soon, and even if Israel in the next weeks and months tries to analyze the failures of its intelligence, some details may remain unknown.
In particular, even if the Israeli officials conclude that Iran's involvement, hasty actions on his charge will be more dangerous than opportunity. If Israel had finally determined that Iran would be the culprit, the appropriate measures would be required. In conditions where gas and hostage crisis is still ongoing and are obvious priorities, Israel is unable to expand the conflict. The United States is in a different but also disadvantage.
Focusing on Ukraine and China, the Joseph Baiden administration is even less interested in exacerbation of tensions with Iran, and even more so ready to get involved in a new war in the Middle East. Iran and his proxy are threatened with measures in response in the event of a conflict with Israel or US intervention.
There is also a real possibility of spreading the war to Lebanon, where periodic cross -border shooters between the Israeli Defense Army and militants in southern Lebanon are already taking place. Israel cannot easily wage a war on several fronts and will probably seek to avoid unnecessary escalation in relations with Iran and his supporters, as long as possible. The United States, for their part, seek to avoid the unnecessary consumption of their resources.
Whatever Israel and the United States would avoid a larger conflict, Iran and its satellites can also exacerbate, which will lead to unintentional escalation. Although the Iranian block is most likely not seeking a wide open war, it clearly feels comfortable, playing with it. In part, Iran and his satellites encourage the feeling that Israel is vulnerable and weak as ever.
This is facilitated by the internal political differences in Israel (which were clearly revealed early this year in connection with the attempt of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyaga to weaken the country's judicial system), tension on the western bank and the growth of anti-Palestine sentiment by the settlers.
Abraham agreements have become the only counter -argument that refutes the opinion of the decline of Israel, and the efforts of Biden administration to conclude an agreement that would lead to the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, would further strengthen the regional integration of Israel. The time of the terrorist attacks could be selected specifically to disrupt Saudi Arabia and Israel, but they were unlikely to be dictated only by this motive.
This is due to the fact that Iran has been working on strengthening its proxy for more than a decade to succeed in the fight against Israel, and this campaign, especially in the Gaza Sector, has been gaining momentum. The Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution has developed for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad "special weapons systems that allow this group to produce low and medium -range missiles from inexpensive and easily accessible industrial materials.
Although the large -scale work of the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution is carried out with the Lebanese group of Hezbolla, supplying modern missiles, controlled anti -tank and anti -ship ammunition, as well as drones that can strike in the depths of Israel. Gaza and hezbollah weapons reserves are hidden in underground tunnels and are placed in densely populated quarters.
Therefore, Hezbollah and Hamas can strike most of the large Israeli settlements with the help of weapons located outside the visibility area, and even despite the presence of high -tech air defense systems in Israel, some of the missiles and drones can still be killed and killed by peacekeepers Israel.
Due to the combination of rockets, bombs and drones of the Corps of the Guards of the Islamic Revolution, located in Syria, as well as high -precision missiles in its territory, Israel is surrounded on all sides by threats. Even with the overwhelming military force, Israel cannot easily destroy this weapon, and any attempt to reduce its stocks by military will inevitably lead to mass casualties among civilians.
The current operations of Israel in Gaza are developing exactly as Hamas and Iran provided. They know that Israel cannot seriously fight Hamas without killing innocent men, women and children. The more peaceful Palestinians die, the more Israel loses his moral positions and the more sentiment in the region (including in Arabic countries hostile to Hamas) will be against Israel. This reality gives Iran the confidence that his Israeli strategy works.
Tehran does not need a total war against Israel to defeat him; It is enough to throw firewood into the fire. Regardless of whether Iran was directly involved in the attack, or simply gave money, Hamas attack, Israel's response and a slaughterhouse that a new war in gas will bring, contribute to the implementation of Iran's plans. Iran's strategy against Israel was patient. The regime sought to kill the enemy with a thousand cuts, not overwhelming.
However, the attacks in October forced Israel to act. If Israel really seeks to end the threats, he will have to expand his sphere of influence far beyond the gases and start resisting Iran. Obviously, the Israeli approach to Iran has been ineffective. One round of secret actions in response to Israel will be insufficient to change Iran's calculations, to hold it responsible for complicity or to reduce the threat that he and his allies are.
So, Israel will have to change the rules of the game, and what it can cause and how long it will take can only be guessed. One thing can be said with confidence: the situation will deteriorate. The risk of escalation is very real, and the prospect of a wide regional war is extremely close. Moreover, it can be the beginning of a new dangerous round in the Iran-Israeli conflict-a war that has no obvious solutions and end points.