Will pretend to be interested: any ceasefire will go to Russia's benefit-isw

According to experts, the Kremlin may try to temporarily pretend to agree with the requirements of Ukraine and Western partners to strengthen control over the occupied territories as soon as possible. The temporary cessation of the war in the territory of Ukraine will be profitable for Russia, as it will give it the opportunity to recover, regroup for future offensive operations and strengthen control over the occupied territories. This is stated in the report by the Institute of War Study (ISW).

In addition, Russia's maximalist goals for further territorial expansion in Ukraine will remain unchanged. Experts emphasize that the invaders may suggest that they are interested in proposals for Ukraine's situation in the Western institutions, in order to stimulate the West to take warning steps on Ukraine's territorial integrity. In the discussions of Putin's openness to negotiations through closed channels, the statement of Russia's readiness to abandon any occupied territory of Ukraine.

Russian official representatives continue to emphasize that the ambitious goals of Putin do not exclude the possibility of annexation of previously occupied Ukrainian territories or the acquisition of additional land possessions in Ukraine. Ukraine integration into the European Union and NATO is a long process that will not be opened immediately after any ceasefire.

It is likely that Russia can temporarily suggest that it agrees to these requirements, seeking to accelerate the strengthening of control over the occupied territories. Analysts in the military sphere have noticed that there was no reason to believe that Putin will give up any obligations concerning Ukraine's permission to integrate into Western political, economic and military structures.

This is provided that the Russian military retains the ability to pursue their interests and interfere with Ukraine in this desire. Putin has already violated Russia's previous obligations, without complying with the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea, which occurred in 1991 and 1994.