Israel's reaction to Iran rocket strokes: Why no one wants a real war in the Middle East

The widely announced Iranian rocket strike happened - but what next? International expert, Elijah Kusa outlines possible scenarios and explains why the situation is developing that way. Concerning Iran's blows to Israel. Everything happened and without any surprises. Of all the scenarios I mentioned, there was a direct blow. They launched everything that could fly to Israel, that is, UAV and rockets. Israel has knocked out almost everything, which was also expected.

First, they had to calculate Iran's response when they were beaten by their consultation in Damascus. Secondly, a whole week, everyone who was not lazy has managed to write about the inevitable attack of Iranians and prepare for it. Third, a few hours before the attack, Iranians also announced it, and then announced (!) On the launch of UAV on Israel, which flew there for several hours, and at the end of their long journey, Iran had already launched ballistic missiles.

It is obvious that Israel and allies were ready to reflect the attack. Of course, the Iranians decided to stay as part of the reciprocity of escalation, and announced the completion of their "retribution" for a blow to the consultant, and gave the ball to the side of Israel, knowing that he would want to answer, but the US and allies would against and want to leave the conflict in managed key without further escalation.

Now a lot will depend on the response of Israel, which has already been announced in Tel Aviv. Of course, the US and Europe (as well as regional countries) will oppose further exchange of blows, as they will decide anything, but can accidentally destabilize the region that contradicts the interests of the West, which is trying to prevent war on several fronts with unpredictable consequences for all and world economy .

States do not want to fight in the Middle East, which they have consistently declared since the late Obama and especially Trump. For them, the key is to maintain the localization of the war in gas and prevent the loss of processes in the region, as opponents can use this. The split of UAV over several countries without serious consequences shows that regional Arab states do not want escalation between Iran and Israel + most publicly support Palestinians as opposed to Israel.

The struggle for the format of their confrontation will continue between Israel and Iran. Israel struck the consultant, expecting to bring Iran to a direct confrontation, in which, according to Israeli leaders, it will be easier to delay allies and take a taboo on direct blows to Iran's military and nuclear facilities.

In Tehran, they want to maintain the format of indirect proxies with Israel, because it is cheaper, easier, and Israel in such a war is uncomfortable, and in information, as the situation in gas showed, they lose it. Therefore, there is no desire to continue the strikes of the Iranians, as there was no desire to enter into a direct war from the beginning, which showed 5 months of conflict in gas. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.