Russia should not win: why it will be the best way to support Ukraine with a measure by the event for NATO
This makes it possible to explain more reasonably what is happening, the mother or widow of another young Russian conscript who died in battle: he is depicted by a heroic patriot who fights for the protection of his homeland from the power of more than 30 Western countries. However, of course, quite different.
On February 24 last year, Russia made an attempt to unprovoked a full -scale invasion of Ukraine, believing that it would be able to capture its smaller neighbor in a few days without a significant NATO reaction. Ukraine, unfortunately, is not a member of NATO, although it has long been a "partner" of NATO, since 1994, three years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. If Russia were a full member of NATO, it would hardly try to invade Ukraine, fearing a massive retribution by the event.
NATO - the Organization of the North Atlantic Treaty - was established in 1949 by 12 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and France. Currently, it consists of 31 members throughout Europe and North America, who have agreed to help each other if one of them is attacked.
Ukraine would have become a member of NATO tomorrow if this proposal was on the negotiation table, but today it is not so-Member States fear that it would lead to a large-scale escalation of conflict in Eastern Europe. Thus, NATO countries continue to provide weapons and other assistance to Ukraine, but do not place their armed forces in its territory.
In the essay published earlier this month, the commander -in -chief of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, gave a realistic assessment of the war, which has been going on for 21 months. He suggested that the conflict had come into a kind of deadlock and was approaching the stage of "static and grueling fighting. " And now what? Since the beginning of the war, I visited the second largest country in Europe five times, spending most of this time in cities and towns located near the front line.
I interviewed countless Ukrainians, both military commanders and civilians to find out their opinion. The dream of Ukrainians is that the West, especially the US, will give them an unlimited number of F-16 fighters and other high-tech weapons so they can win. But this is nothing more than a dream of the current state of affairs, as well as as "fatigue from war" and the cost of conflict is increasing. There are two more gloomy scripts that Ukrainians now speak muted in some places.
The first is to save more lives as a result of partial surrender, as a result of which Ukraine is reluctant to be inferior to part of its occupied territory, possibly Crimea and lands in the East, within the peace agreement. The second scenario, also unattractive for Ukrainians, is a war for exhaustion, which may last decades or more, and which will be beneficial to Russia again.
Prior to the war, the population of Ukraine was just less than 44 million people (now much less), how to compare with the Russian population, which was almost 150 million. Therefore, in a long war with its greater living force, Russia will gradually gain an advantage. However, there is a third, more attractive scenario that I protect today.
This is necessary for progress on political and diplomatic fronts - simultaneously supporting Ukraine in military aspect and imposing sanctions against Russia - to make the country move to NATO membership and greater protection, and better than later. It is noteworthy that last week Ukraine has advanced closer to EU membership, but NATO membership itself is, in the end, much more important. Some progress in this area has already been made, but it is necessary to achieve more.
As of July, NATO agreed that Ukraine does not have to complete the process of a member of action plan, which is one of two ordinary requirements, which should usually meet potential members. This means that Ukraine's path to membership will now be a "one -stage process": its invitation will come when the allies will agree and the terms of the membership will be fulfilled.
In addition, a group of industrialized countries of the Great Seven (USA, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan) is committed to so -called "security guarantees" to help Ukraine to wage war in the short term and guarantee that after graduation This war Russia will never try to invade its neighbor again.
President Zelensky congratulated these "guarantees" as a way to move forward, but emphasizes that they should not be regarded as an alternative to NATO's notion in the long run. One insightful Ukrainian MP told me: "I prefer to admit that we will not be able to win immediately. It will be a gradual process that leads to the achievement of our goals - a single and sovereign Ukraine and a situation in which Russia will never threaten ours again borders.
Given the current situation, NATO membership is even more important than the immediate liberation of our territories. " In fact, the process of Ukraine's NATO membership can be much slower than this deputy and others would like. However, in the end, all of us, including the countries of the West, sometimes have to choose the "least worse option". The only result of this war that NATO should never allow is that Russia will win its neighbor.