Fast Peace trap: Why talk about the rapid end of war in Ukraine only delayed it

If you set up for a speedy end of the war, it will last a long time - and vice versa, setting up for a "long war" will lead to victory as soon as possible. Analyst Valery Baker explains this paradox, which is clear: when you do not wait for a quick victory, you concentrate all the forces in military affairs, and this allows you to overcome the enemy faster. I am more likely to hear that "the war will end soon. " This is a very harmful narrative, and I will try to explain why.

No, I do not want to say that the war will last forever or many years. It is impossible: the war of such intensity burns resources as a forest fire burns the forest and stops, because there is nothing to burn. Thing in another. If we all set up to end the war, it will last a very long time. Conversely, if we set up for a long war, it will end much faster. Such is the paradox. But the strategy is always paradoxical. The short path is long, because there is an ambush.

The long way is short because it is safe. And so on. Let Tao tell many similar examples. If we all set up to end the war, then politicians will only think about the next elections, and voters - about a quick return to a normal life. We all, politicians and voters, on the front and in the rear, entrepreneurs and workers, will make the wrong decisions, based on false priorities. The consequence of these wrong decisions will be a significant deterioration in the situation and delaying war.