Batig instead of gingerbread for Putin: 7 reasons why Russian dictator does not want to stop war
Its economy moves to stagflation, and prices for main consumer goods are off the chart. Moreover, President Donald Trump does his best to make Putin as easily as possible. In a frantic rush to Peace, Trump practically paved Putin's way to the table of negotiations with warning concessions and nods towards the Kremlin propaganda lies.
The White House accepted most of the rhetorical statements and conditions of Moscow: from the consent with the Russian lies that the invasion was a response to the desire of Ukraine to join NATO, to the demand to give the territory captured by Russia, the delegitimization of the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky and the actual prevention of use of European peacekeepers by refusal.
However, instead of taking advantage of these concessions, agree to the ceasefire and move on to what can, if not triumph, is a victory, Putin takes time. On Friday, Trump's messenger Stephen Witcoff held a third meeting with Putin, which ended as minor progress as the previous two. And two days later, Russia demonstrated its constant disobedience to Trump's peaceful proposal, making a deadly terrorist attack during a church service on Palm Sunday, which killed dozens of people.
Here are seven reasons why Putin evades. 1. The war gives grounds for Putin's dictatorship. There is no better international context for the dictatorship than the war. As the Cold War Architect "George Kennan," Soviet leaders had to treat the outside world as a hostile, because it gave a single justification of dictatorship, without which they did not know how to rule.
" When, during the third presidential term of Putin (2012-2018), income and economic growth slowed down, Putin changed the basis of the legitimacy of his regime to militarized patriotism. This was first manifested in the invasion and occupation of Crimea in 2014, and then in the decision to invade Ukraine. Putin, as before, is necessary for Russia to be surrounded by enemies, otherwise there is no reason for militarized patriotism and more and more repression that move its regime. 2.
Putin likes the attributes of militarism. Putin is personally absorbed by the Stalin's title of the Supreme Commander, swaying in military uniform and holding medals on soldiers. The end of the war will deprive him of such a symbolic requisite for the image of the defender of the Motherland, which he cherished. 3. The Russian economy depends on the war.
Since the full -scale invasion of 2022, the Russian economy has been rebuilt to support the war, and the transition to peacetime economy is unlikely to be painless. Consumers have already suffered: an annual increase in prices for such basic foods as bread, chicken and pasta, is expressed in two -digit figures, and potatoes are twice as expensive than before the war. This year, this year, the country's GDP will increase by only 1. 4-1.
6 percent, and at 21 percent of the hope of a rapid recovery of the economy at the interest rate of the central bank. Everyday wanderings suddenly become more significant when they can no longer be justified by victims of wartime. The war is all off, says the Russian proverb. 4. Cancellation of premiums and other benefits of wartime can cause social riots. To put an end to the expectations that society is used to is a difficult task for any regime.
The abolition of signature bonuses, soldiers' salaries and payments to families of dead servicemen who significantly exceed the average income in the country and have made it possible to escape from the poverty by some disadvantaged areas of Russia will probably cause dissatisfaction.
Hundreds of thousands of war veterans, many of which are angry, imbued with the horrors and savagery of Stalinist methods of the Second World War, which Putin has completely repeated in Ukraine, also expect privileges and career ladders. Meanwhile, the increase in the number of crimes committed by veterans has already become a problem that the Kremlin is concerned about, and it can be exacerbated in case of reduction of benefits.
The same applies to civilians, many of whom work in the defense sector. Accustomed to high salaries, prestige and employment guarantees in the up-to-date military-industrial complex, hundreds of thousands of workers are unlikely to be happy to return to their meager jobs in peacetime-if, of course, they will still be able to find them in the abbreviated civilian sector. 5. The changes destabilize authoritarian modes.
Any sharp change in politics, even objectively for the better, is associated with the risk to political leaders. This is especially true for authoritarian regimes, which at the same time seem unacceptable to external pressure and are dangerously devoid of flexibility. 6. Putin is an opportunist and a risk lover. Each new concession encourages Putin to new and more bold ultimatums. The more Trump will offer as compensation, the more Putin will insist on more. It is the Putin art of the agreement. 7.
Putin needs a victory rather than peace. The main reason for Putin's inaction is that peace is not a priority for him. Priority is victory. The only thing that can overcome the instability of the end of the war is a victory that has a brilliant appearance to help the Kremlin balance the post -war problems and the memory of the killed and crippled - without the need to resort to repression to cope with public dissatisfaction.
In the wars, combatants begin to negotiate when they are convinced that they can achieve more at the negotiation table than on the battlefield. "Better" for Putin almost certainly means nothing more than Ukraine's surrender. Encouraging and rhetorical threats could not deprive him of this hope. The bottom line is that Putin has not yet had good reasons to agree to the end of the war.
What will make him change? Trump's gingerbreads should be replaced by whips - an effective and consistent policy aimed at ensuring that the cost of war exceeds the cost of peace. The introduction of secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil, as Trump recently proposed, would become one of these measures.
The closure of loopholes in sanctions against the Russian energy sector by including the leading Russian oil company "Rosneft" and the largest manufacturer of NDG "Novatek" would be another step in the correct direction, along with the cessation of importing Russian PPG to Europe. The closure of a loophole for sanctions on major banks, such as Rosselhozbank and Raiffeisenbank, owned by Austria, would also help Putin concentrate attention.
It goes without saying that a significant increase in US military assistance to Ukraine would make an impression. Trump and his negotiators need to understand that Putin intends to go to so -called peace talks only to consolidate Ukraine's surrender. He will pull until he is sure of this goal. It is impossible to convince him in the opposite - except to make the price of his delay more painful. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.