Ukraine in two years. Three scenarios for developments in and around the war
We take the time limit here for at least 2 years to take into account the effects of elections in key countries. You do not like everything below, but someone must say it. If you better ignorance for you, stop here and do not read on. Input (what we know at this point): There are three main scenarios for Ukraine. 1. Continuation of the war on exhaustion. The worst scenario, and so far everything is moving along this trajectory.
Changing power in the Western countries will reduce support to the level where Ukraine will not be able to continue the war and will be forced to negotiate peace under Russia.
Even if political support is maintained at the current level, the number of stress points in the world will increase, distracting from Ukraine, and the ability of the event to give weapons will start to exhaust, and nobody will translate the US or European economy into military rails (Ukraine is in no case capable of itself to provide itself with modern weapons, although it must take all possible steps in this direction).
In fact, this scenario means the defeat of Ukraine, which leaves no chance to restore the economy (at the same time it is a defeat and Russia, but they are satisfied with the end of the war with a mutual defeat).
In domestic policy, Ukraine also has problems because it is impossible to conduct elections during infinite martial law, and if they are conducted, they preserve the current power in the worst way that gives the West to finally abandon Ukraine as a undemocratic country, or lead to mass protest, that during the war will have extremely negative consequences. 2. Freezing war. This scenario gives the event a way out of the current trap "Defeat, Victory and Tightening are equally unacceptable.
" In this scenario, the Allies leave the support of Ukraine at about the current level to prevent the defeat of Ukraine and not to defeat Russia. Ascertaining the inability to succeed, Western allies bowls to Ukraine's freezing negotiations while pressing Putin at the same time (today he does not need the election today, because the rate is made on the first scenario, but many factors can change the situation).
Biden will initiate either in the spring or summer of 2024 (he needs to look in the election by the winner or at least a peacemaker), or already the winner of the US election in the spring of 2025. After signing the peace agreement, both sides (Ukraine through the event, Russia through China) are beginning to prepare intensely) next war, which will happen in 5 years (minimum 3, maximum 7).
Since the peace agreement leads to the removal of martial law, democratic elections are held, which win new faces that embody the course for comprehensive modernization, while Zelensky is associated with defeat and comes from a political scene (refusing to hold a democratic election in peacetime. There are even worse consequences for him).
During the preparation, Russia has a chance to study the mistakes of 2022, and Ukraine has a chance to be significantly modernized (not only in the technical but also in the institutional aspect; in brackets I also point out that it is worth starting). In the best version of this scenario, Ukraine is so well upgraded that Russia is warning to attack.
In the worst version, Ukraine is poorly prepared, and the second invasion leads to a complete defeat and the establishment of a pro -Russian regime (see the first and second Chechen wars). 3. Victory. Ukraine manages to convince the Allies that the defeat of Russia is an acceptable scenario (and even desirable).
Assistance increases sharply to a level that allows you to successfully conduct a spring-summer counter-offensive, release the South and Crimea, significantly reduce the front line, freeze the occupied part of the East to the best of times and in this format to go on negotiations on Ukrainian conditions. After the peace is signed, Ukraine enters NATO and receives big money to restore and modernize the economy. Victory Ukraine attracts the world's attention in various aspects.
The security situation is favorable for economic growth, unlocked seas are open to export. Zelensky easily wins the democratic elections as a winner in the war. Meanwhile, Russian defeat leads to the accumulation of factors that lead to political changes, as it was always in its history after military defeats. These changes (in a mild refined format or in a more likely rigid decolonization format) make the following Russian aggression.
The "Victory" scenario is the least probable because it involves the level of strategic and negotiation skills that Ukraine does not now. At the same time, it is the only one that ensures the survival of a governing political team, and it is good that the interests of society and the political elite coincide. Two final remarks. I would like to emphasize again: the future is not defined in advance. The best scenarios are possible, only they need to be embodied, not just believe.