Putin lies: from the truce in Ukraine there will be "more harm than good" - Bloomberg analysis
The details of the Victory Plan President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky are not known. However, he has already revealed an important prerequisite - only strong Kiev will be able to make Putin sit at the talk table. "To some extent, he is right. While Putin believes that he will be able to survive Ukraine's support by the West, his war will continue. The question is how to change his calculation," the publication said.
As a result of the war in Ukraine, about one million people were injured or killed. The fighting forced Ukrainians to move massively, and shelling destroyed houses and infrastructure in settlements. This created a new geopolitical instability and destroyed the economy. "Impulse" wash hands " - to accept Putin conditions, stop the slaughterhouse and prevent further escalation - clear," the editorial staff admitted. The Kremlin head even occasionally showed interest in negotiations.
However, the media emphasized that Putin only "suffered", and some nuances give his insincerity. The Russian leader has set the price of the start of negotiations - the refusal of Ukraine to claim four regions and Crimea, as well as from the hope of joining NATO. At the same time, Russia has put the economy on military rails, buying weapons and technologies from "ironing countries". Putin's goal remains unchanged - Ukraine should be reduced to "Russian vassal".
"No matter what the ceasefire is, it would cause huge risks for Ukraine," the publication was warned. The pause in hostilities will give Moscow time for a replacement set for about 30,000 fighters, which it loses per month. This will plan a new mobilization, as well as eliminate operational shortcomings and replenish the armed arsenal. Putin would use a truce to plan new attacks. At the same time, the ceasefire will jeopardize Ukraine's international support.
It is noted that many allies in the West are already looking for "loopholes" to spend money on internal needs instead of help. The truce will give these countries a wonderful reason that will be a plausible cover. Putin has long been betting on the fatigue of Ukraine's support and the passivity of his people. He finances his own army enough to continue the war. The false ceasefire will increase the risk that its rate will play.
The US and allies should strive to provide Ukraine with the best negotiating positions. "To begin with, the event should admit that any significant reduction in funding will not put an end to the war now-it will inspire Putin," the media explained. The article clarified what it is important to strengthen Ukraine's air defense, supply more ammunition and weapons, and lift restrictions on long -range rockets. Such steps are able to spoil Putin's costs and benefits.
In addition, Ukraine needs "reliable security guarantees". The editorial staff called it a difficult task, because NATO does not want to spread open protection to the Alliance. "The nuance and ambiguity may be required. But the collective promise - apparent or other - to protect the territories now under the control of Ukraine should be on the table to restrain further aggression," - emphasized in the publication.
Journalists recalled that Putin is known to be able to break his word when he sees strategic benefit. Arrangements and truce are no exception in this case. There is every reason to expect in the world that this time the Russian leader will do the same. "Without proper precautions, the ceasefire would not cease war, not save life or would not benefit ordinary Ukrainians. It would do the opposite," the media added.