NATO flag will not help: what Russian Armed Forces will be answered to the west

On July 19, the Ministry of Defense of Russia stated that after the closing of the "grain agreement" will consider all vessels that come to the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports as carriers of military goods. Countries belonging to such ships will consider the Russian Federation involved in the Great War on the side of Kiev. Marine districts in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the Black Sea international waters were declared temporarily dangerous for navigation.

The United States responded to the statements of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. According to the representative of the Council of National Security of the White House of Adam Hodge, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can attack civilians in the Black Sea and accuse of this Armed Forces. According to the Pentagon, the Russian military installed sea mines on approaches to Ukrainian ports.

Thanks to the annexation of Crimea, Russia formally declared the control of part of the Black Sea. In connection with the termination of the Grain Agreement, Moscow refuses to monitor the safety of passage of ships between Odessa and Istanbul. There are mines in the Black Sea and the threat of new rocket attacks. The question of ensuring the safety of vessels with grain is open, and NATO has no answer yet.

In Ukraine, it was assumed that the ships of the Naval Forces of Turkey would provide protection. Western officials surveyed by Bloomberg said it was a very risky step for Turkey. "Ankara will not risk their warships to help the vessels from Ukraine. Instead, Erdogan will focus on the restart of the Russian participation. Focus, military analysts interviewed the low probability of shelling of the Russian Armed Forces of foreign ships in the Black Sea with anti -ship missiles or torpedoes.

Alternatively, a tight mining of the water area with subsequent official warning. "It all depends on Vladimir Putin's decision. The consequences of a stroke on the ship under the flag of NATO will be heavy for the Russian Federation. Destruction of the ship - a blow to NATO country. Escalation at the highest level is secured.

Not sure that it is NATO members who will let the vessel with grain," The coordinator of the "Information Resistance" group Alexander Kovalenko also doubted the determination of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. "For example, if a vessel comes under the flag of Portugal, Greece or Italy, it is the territory of these countries. Confrontation with NATO countries is the reason for the use of article 5 of the Alliance's collective defense.

The Russian attacked Russian will actively insist on Moscow's responsibility," he explained. The closure of the "grain corridor", according to Western experts, will increase Ukraine's dependence on alternative trade routes across the Danube River and neighbors on the European Union. All these paths are expensive, and some EU members will not be happy to see Ukrainian grain in their territory. "Alternative routes are much more expensive.

It raises the issue of production of goods and processing of Ukrainian grain. Most exports will probably decrease. In Ukraine, grain reserves will accumulate," Bloomberg said the head of the Agricultural Market Marlos Mayor Marlos Agricultural Market Research Department. Economic analysts doubt the expediency of civilian ship measures to the ports of Ukraine, which have been fired by Russian missiles for the last three days.

"None of the ship owner will go there, and without the protection of the safe corridor, the trade of Ukraine is dead. The shipowners will simply go to Ukrainian ports," said Vasilis Muyis, one of the directors of the Greek company Doric Shipbrokers SA, which sent the vessel to Ukraine. European countries have not yet forbidden transit transportation of Ukrainian grain. According to the Executive of the NBU Council Vitaliy Shapran, the export of Constanta through the Romanian Port may be option.

In 2022, Constanta was expensive for farmers from Ukraine - transportation prices jumped up to $ 100 per ton. The Romanian port could not accept the whole grain because it needs restructuring, he said. The impossibility of direct grain removal by the sea will increase the price of agricultural products for the final market by 50-100 dollars per tonne compared to last year, predicts Shapran.

The First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Taras Vysotsky said that the best was the export of Ukrainian grain to the Danube River. During the Great War, Ukraine exported about 20 million tons of grain and oil from the Russian Federation. About 10 million tons of grain were exported by rail and three million tons - on the bundles.

"In the absence of a marine grain corridor, we plan to download these export routes and get 40-42 million tons in total in all three ways," Vysotsky said. Focus earlier wrote about Croatia's proposal to provide Ukraine with a railway network and ports in the Adriatic Sea for food transportation. And Poland stubbornly refuses to open the borders for Ukrainian grain. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on July 18 and 19 hit the port infrastructure at the ports of Odessa and the Black Sea.