Between the new "Munich" and "Yalta": a postponed war or peace - what to expect from the meeting of the US and China in September

It is easy to see that the pressure on the perimeter of the Chinese geopolitical space is systematically intensified against the background of several rounds of American-Chinese negotiations on the conclusion of a "trade agreement". Moreover, on the eve of each round of negotiations there is an exacerbation of another world conflict. The United States is systematically increasing the pressure on the Chinese belt of Beijing's geopolitical allies. On the one that is "path" and one that "one".

There have already been fleeting military conflicts between Pakistan and India, Iran and Israel/USA. Obviously, both Pakistan and Iran are China. Because Pakistan is a Chinese-Pakistan economic corridor with a capitalization of tens of billions of dollars and the concession of Port Gadar. And Iran is the largest oil supplier to the Middle Kingdom and potentially most important logistics knot within the south branch of the new silk path and the north-south route.

Analyzing where the conflict could erupt again, I called the South Chinese Sea in my articles and the China-Vietnam-Philippines, and not excluding the collision of the last two countries, that is, without the direct involvement of China. Vietnam has long become part of the Chinese economic impact zone, and this year the countries have been conducting joint training in their Navy for the first time. At the same time, the Philippines are a US key ally in the region.

Agreement on mutual military assistance has been signed between the countries, the US Navy and the Philippine jointly patrol the waters of this island country, which in the event of a conflict with China turns into an unspecified island "aircraft carrier". An interesting detail - the contingent of the Philippine Army, although small, participated in the Vietnamese war on the US side. But not in the South Chinese Sea, but the northwestern Sea. The border war between Cambodge and Thailand began.

It is a long -standing conflict that arose from the definition of France (which in the first half of the 20th century colonially dominated the Indochina) lines of demarcation between these states. In general, the Western empires liked to leave such "mines of slow action", especially the British: "Durand Line", "Curzon Line", "Redcliffe Line". As a result, border conflicts are periodically erupting between Cambag and Vietnam.

At the same time, Cambodia is a Chinese ally and actively drifting towards the global Eurasian island. Until 2023, one of the political long-lived Political Long Lives-Prime Minister Hung Saint, former battalion commander and the Red Khmer Brigade. During his reign, Chinese investments and labor immigrants were flooded into the country. Instead, the economy showed high growth rates, including the development of basic infrastructure.

The Hun Senu belongs to the words: "I will not only weaken the opposition, I will make them dead . . . If someone has the strength to try to perform a demonstration, I will beat these dogs and put them in a cage. " HUN Saint is an irreconcilable opponent of a grant opposition that is abroad. He said about them, "Attach them wherever you saw them. There is no need for arrest warrants. This is the right of the armed forces. We will use all kinds of weapons to destroy them.

" The Georgian Government with its law on foreign agents is innocent children. In 2023, the son of Hung Sen, a 47-year-old HUN Meta, was appointed as a premiere of Cambodia. Notably, the sons of the former executives were appointed to the posts of the Minister of Defense and the Minister of Internal Affairs. An interesting model of inheritance of power, not personalist, but group. Thailand is a traditionally pro -Western country, especially in the context of the army's attitude.

But lately the situation has changed. Policy in the country, in addition to the military, is influenced by the Clan Chnavat, which controls a large part of business assets in the country. Many remember the Prime Minister Taxi Chivat, who has successfully carried out successful economic reforms, repaid the debt to the IMF and made a decision to terminate credit cooperation with the Fund.

Let us call it a coincidence, but as soon as the taxi hammer decided to say goodbye to the IMF, the "Buddhist Yellow Root" Maidan, which headed the People's Alliance for Democracy, happened in the country. The main requirement is the resignation of the Chicavaat, which was accused of corruption: he allegedly did not pay taxes on the sale of his shares to foreign investors. The army supported protesters, and in Thailand it is a key factor.

Chicauni fled to Britain, but London refused him in a political asylum, which was why he was forced to return home and received a year of prison. But in 2024, the daughter of Taxi - Phetanghthan China became the prime minister. The army was forced to put up with the return of the clan Chnavat to power, because the military is unable to carry out economic reforms, and in the family of Chicana it turns out much better, we can say, wonderful.

Clan Chicauni began to bet on China and the government of the country even applied for joining Brix. Again, let's call it a coincidence. Only Thailand Phhethonghthan Prime Minister Chnavat decided to shake the application for admission to Brix, as in June 2025, her conversation with the above mentioned HUN Saint, which remains the informal leader of Cambodia, got into public access. The drainage of telephone conversations became just a branded chip of the famous special service.

In the conversation, the Chicaunist called her visa "uncle", and herself "niece", which within the limits of local etiquette is the highest degree of respect. Chicaunat reported that the top of the Thai army could provoke on the border of two countries. It was about "our opponents", and more specifically - the "commander of the Second Army District" of Thai General Bunsin Padklang, who could start a conflict, which was "not beneficial of the nation.

" Phhethonghthan proposed to solve everything through negotiations and declared her readiness to prevent a military conflict between countries. After the telephone conversation became the property of the public, the Constitutional Court of the country removed the Chicaunist from the post of prime minister. It happened on July 1, 2025, and within three weeks the war of Thailand and Cambodia began.

Now you should expect the strengthening of the role of the military in Thailand and the change in the geopolitical course - the application for joining Brix, may be paused. The conflict, meanwhile, from the category of the average turns into a tactical: there are dead, 100,000 refugees, the Cambodia army counterattacaks in dangerous closeness to Thai resorts, the fleet is involved. Cambodia states that the F-16 Thai Air Force has shot down. Most likely, a Chinese missile.

If this is confirmed, it will be the second fact of the defeat of Western aviation equipment by means of Chinese air defense. Earlier, Pakistan was struck by Chinese missiles Indian military aircraft of French. I would not call all these conflicts the wars of proxy. It would be a manifestation of disrespect for them, but most importantly, it would not correspond to reality. India, Pakistan, Iran, Israel, Cambodia and Thailand are quite sovereign in their desire for war and peace.

Even if the interests of the US and China are visible in these conflicts. Most likely, we are dealing with the first wave of world-system wars within the first global war of the 21st century. In September, the meeting of Xi Jinping and Trump is possible. It can take place in Beijing on September 3, when China will celebrate the 80th anniversary of Victory in World War II.

China is actively adopting the ideologue of the winner in the Russian Federation in the Second World War, in parallel forming its national historical myth. The key goal is to fit yourself into the historical world pantheon as a triumphant. To do this, China uses a number of historical technologies of the USSR. The end of World War II is celebrated by China on September 3, but Japan signed an act on surrender on September 2, 1945.

That is, a day of victory on a "day later" is formed for what is recognized in the US or Europe (as May 8 and 9). The second technology is its own chronology of war. If the USSR set the boundaries of 1941-1945, then China defines the Second World War as an eight -year: 1937-1945, starting it from the date of Japan's invasion of China. A meeting in Beijing can end with Yalta-2025 when the distribution of strategic spheres of influence will occur without a major confrontation.

As in the legends about the samurai, when the two soldiers met each other, they thought the duel and, convinced that he would end with a draw, they dispersed without removing their swords. But if the format of the meeting is different or it does not take place in the near future, then the signing of a temporary trade agreement between China and the US will become a "Munich-2025", that is, a prologue, delaying the great confrontation. Which can end with a global disaster.