Future truce: what territories Ukraine and Russia will be controlled

The question of how new demarcation lines will be determined, which territories will remain under the control of Ukraine and which can go to Russia is becoming increasingly relevant. This is of critical importance for the future security, economy and development of the country. On April 25, Reuters published the full text of the project of a peace agreement proposed by the United States to end the war between Ukraine and Russia.

In particular, it includes: the focus understood what the demarcation line would look like if the truce is enclosed. According to military analyst Dmitry Snegirev, Russia is currently delaying the talk process in order to seize as many Ukrainian territories as possible. Currently, the strategic task of the Russian army, at least, establishing full control over the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

"The Luhansk region is almost completely occupied, Russia is currently resolving the issue of full control of Donetsk region, namely industrial cities, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Druzhkivka. The Russian army is also interested in the occupation The expert emphasizes the focus. According to a military analyst, Slavic and Kramatorsk agglomerations are of the greatest value to the Russian government.

It is because of the industrial potential of territories and huge deposits of minerals, which are interested in three parties United States, Russia and Ukraine. In particular, these are the largest deposits in Europe. Russia is trying to block the possibility of shale gas development so that Ukraine and European countries depend on Russian gas. Accordingly, the United States and Ukraine are interested in the Slavyansk under the control of the Ukrainian state.

If it can be implemented, it will be a serious success of both the Ukrainian side and, accordingly, the United States. According to Dmitry Snegirsova, the Russian army, most likely, will leave the Kharkiv region completely. This is due to the fact that this area is not included in the Russian Federation, according to the so -called Vladimir Putin decree. The Kherson region, according to the expert, will be divided into the Dnieper. They also consider navigation at the mouth of the Dnieper.

However, the Kinburn Spit of the Russians will try to leave themselves. "The Russians are well aware of the strategic importance of Kinburn's braid. It is an opportunity in the event of an exacerbation of war, to block free navigation and the work of Ukrainian sides. Although it is not excluded that the United States will be able to get out of Russia from the Kinburn Spit, it will, again, will be a serious success of the Ukrainian.

According to Dmitry Snegirev, the Russian army has now intensified in the Zaporozhye direction, trying to show its territorial claims to the entire Zaporozhye region. The United States proposes to transfer the territory around the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant under the joint control of the US and Ukraine with the creation of a demarcation zone "it actually puts a point in the plans of Russian occupiers. The Ukrainian interests are taken into account here.

Moreover, the demarcation line involves the presence of a military contingent. As for Crimea, the expert noted that he would remain in the orbit of the Russian Federation. According to military expert Oleg Zhdanov, it is unknown who will guarantee the security of Ukraine. The United States is not ready to take responsibility, but the possible introduction of European peacekeepers is blocked by the Russian Federation.

However, without guarantees, this truce is unlikely to be performed and it looks like a situation that was already in Donetsk and Luhansk regions from 2015 to 2022. It will be an armed conflict of low intensity. "The only thing an agreement can be reached is about the breeding of troops and the creation of a demilitarized zone. But it is even worse.

Without introducing a third party there, which will put their own troops there and will ensure the inability to restore the fighting and penetration of sabotage and intelligence groups, it will not work. " Oleg Zhdanov recalled that such an operation with the separation of the parties has been going on for 40 years in Cyprus.

We will remind, the mayor of Kiev Vitaliy Klitschko suggested that during the negotiations on the end of the war will have to make a political decision to lose part of the territory. Focus also wrote that it would be if the US is recognized as Russian. Experts believe that most states, including European allies, China and others, are unlikely to support this recognition that will complicate the global consensus. However, the likelihood that Trump will make such a gift of Putin very high.