"To move the war for the Dnieper": why Russia keeps up to 200 thousand soldiers in the south of Ukraine

In several sections, the invaders create small groups of up to 10 people for assaults, but the creation of large offensive groups is not fixed yet, said the representative of the south defense forces on October 30, Vladislav Voloshin. In addition, the enemy collects armored vehicles to support the assault groups.

Significant promotions in the south of the Armed Forces were not shown, but a few days ago they "wedged" a short distance in the defense of the Armed Forces near the village of Levadne on the Wremyevsky projection. At the same time, on October 27, the DeepState Analysts team declared the occupation of Levadna on October 27. According to Voloshin, the Russians are more actively attacked towards the Zaporizhzhya region after the capture of the coal.

The Armed Forces continue to stabilize the situation in the region. Judging by the number of focused troops, Russia can prepare an offensive not only in the Donbass, but also in the Zaporozhye direction. The process of preparation also includes transportation on landfills of additional personnel, warned by the adviser of the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko.

Attempts at attacks in the area of ​​the Great Novosilka is already a harbinger of the offensive and it is not necessary to wait for it to start near the robot. The Russians close the travel from Berdyansk to Tokmak under the cover of the construction of construction equipment. But in reality, it will be delivered by soldiers from landfills to the front line, the mayor adviser. The Russian media also write about the activation of bombing in the Orikhiv direction in the Zaporozhye region.

You can often see the use of heavy aviation bombs Fab-500. According to the co -founder of the analytical project Deepstate Roman Pogoreli, it is difficult to track the real number of Russian troops in the south of Ukraine. It is known that in the area of ​​Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, Kurakhov and Toretsk groups of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation there are up to 70,000 soldiers, and near Kupyansk - about 40,000.

All of them will be in the area of ​​Orikhov, but while they were distributed along Ochakov to Berdyansk. ", - he says. In Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions, the Deepstate team does not see significant activation of enemy reserves. In the area of ​​robot storms are almost constantly. The danger of attacks from Zaporizhzhya is confirmed by military analysts interviewed by focus. Through the port in Mariupol, military cargoes have been actively imported since August 2024.

But in July, the number of personnel in the occupied territories of the region was estimated by 90,000 people. "There are more than 15,000 soldiers in the Crimea, which is not known about 200,000 occupiers. Due to the situation in the Donbass, it is logical to transfer 100,000 to Pokrovsk or Kursk region," says the focus Colonel of the Reserve, the Armed Forces General Staff, Vladislav Seleznyov.

The reason why the Russians are free to accumulate troops in the south of Ukraine is the loss of the coal. The Armed Forces can no longer impress the railway artillery in the south of Donetsk region, in particular in Volnovak. It is too early to talk about a large -scale attack in the Zaporozhye region, since the main purpose of the autumn campaign of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has become a promotion in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.

"In front of Moscow, resolving the issue with the Kursk bridgehead and Donbass. Parallel processes on other fronts may be, but will the resources be enough? Active fighting is now going on Kupyansk-Limansk direction for the threats of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk," Seleznyov added.

It cannot be excluded that in the Zaporizhzhya direction the Russians will apply the tactics of "thousands of cuts" - to sharply activate fighting to distract the forces of the Defense of Ukraine from Donbass, the military expert Dmitry Snegirev thinks. "The Donetsk Front still became the main direction of strikes of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. In the Kupyansk direction hot, there is a shock grouping of flank coverage from the south.

In the area of ​​robots and small Tokmachka, the PCS of the Russian Federation is working hard. Dnipro, "the expert explains. The weather conditions, according to Snegirev, will reduce the intensity of drone attacks, which will simultaneously worsen the defensive capacity of the Armed Forces. But at the same time, the activity of the PCS of Russia will fall. Officials, for their part, promise to build a third line of fortifications in the Zaporozhye region soon.

According to the head of Zaporizhzhya Ova Ivan Fedorov, the region should be turned into a fortress. "The first task to be provided was accomplished in the middle of summer. So far, we continue to build a second, third line and defense with the military," he said. Fedorov emphasized that fortifications are constantly modernized, and if earlier their basis was in shelter from cabin and artillery, now they think about protection against drones.