Putin has ended money for war: how and why the Federal Budget of the Russian Federation fell

If you look deeper into monthly statistics, we will see that in 15 months the rate of increase of income from +78% in January 24th fell to 0% in March-25. A noticeable decline in tax growth began in the 2nd half of 2024-from +33% in August to 0% in March. Quarter of the 25th-generally enchanting in terms of growth: reasons. Let's now understand the reasons. See the third schedule. Revenues consist of about 1/3 of oil and gas revenues and 2/3 of non -gas.

Oil and gas incomes increased by 60-90%due to the reduction of production and the fall in oil at the beginning of 2024, and in the year they fell by 20%, especially in February-March 25th, and, I would like to note, the effect of the fall in price, which was last week, is not visible. Nonaphthazal income. Everything is bad here too.

At the beginning of the 24th year, they increased by +85%, and from the second half-year-24, there was a clear trend of decrease in growth from +37% to +10% in March-25. In inflation in 10. 4%. This means that there is no growth in fact. And it happened exactly what they wrote about. They themselves burst into the non -military part of the economy. Initially, they began to lure the labor resources into the defense.

Further, through crazy payments, inflation began to be extinguished by increasing the key rate. After that, the cost of loans increased to 24-30% at the same time all preferential loans began to cut. The consequences were expected. The civil sector began to collapse. Construction, transportation, part of mineral production and more were sprinkled. And here it turned out that tax revenues swam - surprise. Even despite tax rates! And then Bingo happened. Oil and non -income revenues have fallen.

It's straight jackpot. The charm of this data is that they are highly likely to be the most reliable from the entire block of Russian data. This is not a GDP that can be twisted and viewed 4 times a year, and constantly increasing it. No. These data best show the state of the Russian economy. And she is confidently flying under the slope !!! Let's continue. Government. This is generally my favorite topic.

The meaningless increase in loans expectedly led to the growth of money that wounded inflation, and then the Central Bank of the Russian Federation began to extinguish in a fire order, holding a key rate of up to 21%, which led to a crazy increase in service costs, which amounted to +42% in the 4th quarter of the 24th and 44%. Next - even more interesting. There are 9 more trillion of mortgage loans and 5 trillion of preferential loans for businesses that the state has to subsidize.

The cost of all this holiday for a year for the budget will be 5 trillions of rubles, which is almost 13% of all revenues. The most recent fun is that budget revenues are falling, and the cost of servicing liabilities increases by +44% per year. This can only lead to one result - default. It is possible, of course, to build up state reservoirs again, but it will further unpack inflation, which they can not stop. The worst part is that the budget pulse no longer gives fiscal growth. All. Late.

The train left. Well, it is logical, because money should be put in development, not in a firebox where money is burned. In this situation, the war stop will be reasonable. But the mind has long left Russia. Therefore, I expect that they, like a steam, just a rose at all speed . . . I am on the concrete wall with screams and snot. I hope it will happen soon. The fall will be accelerated. Gaida !!!! The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.